Paul Kasriel Archives

2009
	Increase Employment the Same Way You Increase Home Sales  PF   Oct-13-2009
	The Shoals of Depression Have Been Avoided, but the Economy Still Faces Strong Headwinds (pdf)   Sep-15-2009
	The Rhyming of History - Bloomberg and the RFC?  PF   Aug-27-2009
	Initial Jobless Claims Edge Up for Second Consecutive Week - Its Not Unusual  PF   Aug-20-2009
	If Inflation Is a Monetary Phenomenon, Is U.S. Hyperinflation a Clear and Present Danger?  PF   Aug-19-2009
	Today's FOMC Meeting Statement - The Fed Defines "Autumn"  PF   Aug-12-2009
	June Pending Home Sales - More Evidence that the Trough in Sales Is Behind Us  PF   Aug-04-2009
	Second-Quarter GDP - The Parachute Has Opened  PF   Aug-01-2009
	I Come Neither to Praise Nor to Bury Bernanke  PF   Jul-30-2009
	The Passing of Billy Mays Will Boost My Personal Saving Rate  PF   Jul-07-2009
	Let's Be Objective about the Increase in the Fed's Balance Sheet  PF   Jun-29-2009
	How Does an Excess Supply Get Remedied?  PF   Jun-15-2009
	On a Relative "Yield" Basis, Housing Is the Most Attractive Since the Mid 1960s  PF   Jun-12-2009
	Which Mortgage Applications are More Important - Refis or Purchases?  PF   Jun-10-2009
	Why Are Other Yields Falling as the Treasury Bond Yield Rises?  PF   Jun-09-2009
	Greater Risk over Next Five Years - Inflation or Deflation?  PF   Jun-01-2009
	Preferred Equity into Common Equity - Accounting Alchemy?  PF   Apr-27-2009
	Does "Taxing" Pollution Lead to Higher Prices and Lower Aggregate Output?  PF   Apr-22-2009
	Does Kramer Finally Get to Be a Banker and Does There Have to Be Skin in the Game for CDS?  PF   Mar-31-2009
	What's the Difference between Maddoff and U.S. Social Security?  PF   Mar-31-2009
	Fed Monetization - Not What It Buys, but How Much of Anything It Buys  PF   Mar-23-2009
	Equity Market - Record Increase in Supply Meets Extreme Risk Aversion  PF   Mar-13-2009
	Paradox Squared  PF   Feb-23-2009
	The Great Depression - Just the Facts, Ma'am  PF   Feb-09-2009
	Channeling Bob Laurent for a Market-Based "Bad" Bank Solution  PF   Jan-29-2009
2008
	The Credit Rating on a Benevolent Counterfeiters Debt - Infinity A?  PF   Dec-10-2008
	If the Fed Wants to Stimulate Bank Lending, Keep Its Target at 1.00%  PF   Dec-08-2008
	What's so Paradoxical about Thrift?  PF   Dec-02-2008
	Falling Consumer Prices - Good or Bad for Consumers?  PF   Nov-19-2008
	Alan Greenspan - Ted Williams or Willie Mays  PF   Oct-30-2008
	Invest for the Long-Term - the Very Long Term  PF   Oct-23-2008
	Shape of the Recovery - "V" or "U"  PF   Oct-21-2008
	Those Who Fail to Learn from the Leading Indicators Are Bound to Be Late on Their Recession Call  PF   Oct-20-2008
	If It Walks Like A Recession And Talks Like A Recession, It Must Be A Recession  PF   Aug-01-2008
	SP 500 Corporate Profits Leave Little Recession Doubt  PF   Jul-29-2008
	Mr. Boskin, the Facts Don't Support Your Hypothesis  PF   Jul-29-2008
	Why Buy Treasuries When You Will Be Able to Buy Fed/Treasury-Guaranteed GSEs?  PF   Jul-18-2008
	Retail Sales - What a Difference a Deflator Makes  PF   Jul-18-2008
	June Car and Truck Sales Skid to their Slowest Pace Since 1993  PF   Jul-02-2008
	The Picture of a Credit Crunch  PF   Jun-30-2008
	Current Growth in Money and Credit Aggregates Not Fueling Inflation  PF   Jun-27-2008
	NIPA Corporate Profits ? Thank Goodness for Weaker Dollar  PF   Jun-26-2008
	New Homes - Taking Longer to Move the Merchandise  PF   Jun-25-2008
	June Conference Board Data Augurs Poorly for the Unemployment Rate  PF   Jun-24-2008
	Another Blow to Household Cash Flow  PF   Jun-23-2008
	If the Fed Is So Easy, Why Is the Growth in Money and Credit Aggregates So Weak?  PF   Jun-21-2008
	Is the LEI Biased Upwards Because of Mammoth Decline in Fed Treasury Holdings  PF   Jun-19-2008
	House Prices, the Wealth Effect and the Cash-in-Hand Effect  PF   Jun-14-2008
	$536 Billion Worth of Household Assets Evaporated in February?  PF   Apr-30-2008
	The Fed Is Shedding Treasuries at an Annualized Rate of $601 Billion  PF   Apr-29-2008
	Did Greenspan Have to Cut the Fed Funds Rate as Much?  PF   Apr-07-2008
	Recession? Close Enough for Fed Work  PF   Apr-03-2008
	Ring-Fence the Bad Assets - Re-Arranging the Deck Chairs on the Titanic?  PF   Apr-03-2008
	A Profits Recession  PF   Mar-28-2008
	Time to Reform TAF?  PF   Mar-28-2008
	Greenspan's Legacy of Debt  PF   Mar-26-2008
	The Bell Curve of Doom? - The Case-Shiller Home Price Index  PF   Mar-26-2008
	It's So Over for Household Spending  PF   Mar-25-2008
	Wall St. Rallies on Philly Fed Reading  PF   Mar-20-2008
	There Should Be a Quid Pro Quo between the Fed and Financial Institutions  PF   Mar-18-2008
	The Feds Various New Credit Facilities Are Potentially Effective Complements to Interest Rate Policy  PF   Mar-18-2008
	Is This Your Daddys Stagflation?  PF   Feb-22-2008
	Alm's for the Poor?  PF   Feb-11-2008
	Is There Ever A Bad Time To Buy Stocks?  PF   Feb-08-2008
2007
	Gross Financial Investment vs. Net Financial Investment  PF   Dec-21-2007
	Have a Lot of Problems with You People!  PF   Dec-18-2007
	TAF - The Fed Is Not Tone-Challenged After All  PF   Dec-12-2007
	The Bank of Canada - One Small Step for the Dollar, One Giant Leap for Gold?  PF   Dec-05-2007
	October Retail Sales -- Significantly Subdued  PF   Nov-15-2007
	China Has an Inflation Problem  PF   Nov-14-2007
	Housing Construction - It's Multi-Family's Time to Plunge  PF   Oct-18-2007
	U.S. Economy Ends Third Quarter with a Whimper  PF   Oct-17-2007
	MLEC - Trying to Turn a Sows Ear into a Silk Purse?  PF   Oct-15-2007
	Is Mishkin Mishuga* about Asymmetric Monetary Policy Responses?  PF   Sep-12-2007
	The Result of 35 Years of a Paper Global Monetary System  PF   Aug-29-2007
	There's No Such Thing as a Free Bailout  PF   Aug-25-2007
	Lacker: Heck No, We Won't Go (Just Yet?)  PF   Aug-21-2007
	Dont Underestimate the U.S. Consumer? The Global Economy Is Strong?  PF   Aug-15-2007
	Wall Street and Main Street Are Joined at the Hip  PF   Aug-14-2007
	Diverse Asset Class Correlation and Leverage  PF   Aug-13-2007
	You Know Things Are Bad When The WSJ Trots Out Malpass and Wesbury In The Same Week  PF   Aug-09-2007
	2007 Car and Truck Sales - Perhaps Detroit Would Welcome A Strike?  PF   Aug-02-2007
	No Worry about Consumer Spending So Long As Jobs/Income Are Growing?  PF   Jul-31-2007
	The Past Year's Stock Market Rally Has Not Been Economically Driven  PF   Jul-27-2007
	Wealth Effect or Borrowing/Asset Sales Effect  PF   Jul-25-2007
	If Leveraged Buybacks, Why Not Leveraged Dividends?  PF   Jul-25-2007
	How Do You Say "Rube Goldberg" in Chinese?  PF   Jul-20-2007
	Philly Fed Prez Plosser: Consumer Spending, Exports Are Cause for Optimism  PF   Jul-13-2007
	Q2 Retail Sales - Well, At Least Prez Plosser Has Exports  PF   Jul-13-2007
	BLS "Phantom" Workers Now Account for 56% of Payroll Increase  PF   Jul-10-2007
	Bank of England Today, European Central Bank in September?  PF   Jul-06-2007
	Chicago Fed Index Suggests Continued Below-Trend Growth in Q2  PF   Jun-27-2007
	So, the Housing Recession Is Contained?  PF   Jun-27-2007
	Subprime Mortgage Problems Quarantined? Ask the Home Builders  PF   Jun-19-2007
	May CPI: Still Scant Evidence of Food/Energy Price Surge Pass-Through  PF   Jun-15-2007
	May PPI: Still Scant Evidence of Food/Energy Price Surge Pass-Through  PF   Jun-14-2007
	So-Called Fed Model Suggests Housing Is Over-Valued  PF   Jun-11-2007
	Narrowing in April Trade Gap Suggests Weak Domestic Demand  PF   Jun-09-2007
	What's the Deal with Bond Yields?  PF   Jun-09-2007
	White House Buys into "Immaculate" Recovery Theme  PF   Jun-06-2007
	The ECB Takes Another Step Toward Reining In Global Liquidity  PF   Jun-06-2007
	May Retail Sales Looking Soft / Bernanke Appears To Be A Team Player  PF   Jun-05-2007
	Greg Ip Illustrates Why the Fed Should First, Do No Harm  PF   Jun-04-2007
	Will the Real Private Nonfarm Payrolls Please Stand Up?  PF   Jun-01-2007
	Gene Epstein's Great American Savings (sic) Myth  PF   May-30-2007
	Will China's "Stamping" Out of Stock Speculation Curb Overall Speculation?  PF   May-30-2007
	Waiting for Godot and Predicted Supply-Side Results  PF   May-26-2007
	Dollar Bills, Construction Employment And Undocumented Workers  PF   May-22-2007
	Economy May Wake Up Without Consumers' Prodding?  PF   May-22-2007
	People's Bank of China Takes With One Hand, Gives With The Other?  PF   May-18-2007
	Economic Growth Slowing To Stall Speed  PF   Apr-28-2007
	Chicago Fed Index Points To Weak GDP Report On Friday  PF   Apr-23-2007
	LEI and KRWI - It's Different This Time?  PF   Apr-21-2007
	When The Facts Change, I Change My Model - What Do You Do?  PF   Apr-10-2007
	February PCE - Baby, It Was Cold Outside  PF   Mar-30-2007
	Q4 Corporate Profits Sink - Thank Goodness For Wall St.  PF   Mar-29-2007
	Bernanke's JEC Testimony - Fed Still Worried Most About Inflation, However ...  PF   Mar-28-2007
	Recession Imminent? Both the LEI and the KRWI are Flashing Warning  PF   Mar-22-2007
	Recession Watch Perhaps, But Not Yet Warning  PF   Mar-20-2007
	The Inverted Yield Curve - Is It Really Different This Time?  PF   Mar-19-2007
	What's Down With Nominal Retail Sales Growth?  PF   Mar-14-2007
	The Medical Care Component of Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index - Flavor of the Week  PF   Feb-26-2007
	Homeownership Rate and Sub-Prime Mortgages - A Positive Correlation?  PF   Feb-23-2007
	President Moskow: You Funded It, Now Use It  PF   Feb-21-2007
	Housing Has Bottomed? Talk To Lennar  PF   Jan-02-2007
2006
	Copper Price Corroborates Manufacturing Slowdown  PF   Dec-21-2006
	Rising Inventories and Price Cuts = Bottom of the Housing Recession?  PF   Dec-20-2006
	Wholesale Inflation - Energy And Cars Taketh Away And Giveth Back  PF   Dec-20-2006
	U.S. Current Account Deficit - Foreign Investors Making It Up On Volume?  PF   Dec-19-2006
	Festivus Flow-of-Funds Stocking Stuffers  PF   Dec-15-2006
	Goods-Producing Sectors Are Where The Cyclical Action Is  PF   Dec-13-2006
	What's the Fed up to when Yield Curves "De-Invert"?  PF   Dec-06-2006
	The "Carry" Trade in U.S. Housing Looks to be Over  PF   Dec-05-2006
	3Q Labor Cost Data Point To Weak Profit Growth  PF   Nov-29-2006
	Are Households Saving Their Pump Savings?  PF   Nov-28-2006
	Near a Bottom in Housing?  PF   Nov-08-2006
	A Solution to Fisher's Lament  PF   Nov-08-2006
	Professor Siegel Evidently Has Little New To Say and Neither Do I  PF   Sep-21-2006
	Falling Oil Prices May Spell Relief For Consumers?  PF   Sep-14-2006
	July PCE Price Inflation - Fed Stays on Hold at September Meeting?  PF   Sep-01-2006
	McKinnons Rule: An Honest Hypothesis Tested With "Corrupt" Data?  PF   Aug-31-2006
	New Homes Market: Worst Supply-Demand Situation Since Early 1970s  PF   Aug-25-2006
	Record Household Deficit - Is There Anything Wrong With This Picture?  PF   Aug-01-2006
	As Goes Housing So Goes The Economy - Even More So Now?  PF   Jul-28-2006
	Econ 101 Applied to Existing Homes  PF   Jul-26-2006
	The FOMC Is Forecasting Below Potential Economic Growth  PF   Jul-20-2006
	Homebuilding and Retailing Stock Indexes Speak Volumes  PF   Jul-19-2006
	Household Debt Service Ratio Hits New Record High  PF   Jul-15-2006
	Fed Wants To Pause - Will The Data Allow It To?  PF   Jun-29-2006
	Should Britannia Rule The Currency Waves Again?  PF   Jun-20-2006
	Real M2 Growth Signaling U.S. Economic Slowdown  PF   Jun-17-2006
	All Items or Core Inflation - You Can Tighten Now or Tighten Later  PF   Jun-16-2006
	Industrial Production - Weakness Developing In Household-Related Sector  PF   Jun-16-2006
	Regulatory Suasion - An Attempt At Deflating The Housing Bubble  PF   Jun-15-2006
	Will Corporate Bondholders Be Left Holding The Bag Again?  PF   Jun-14-2006
	Retail Sales Beginning To Feel Effects of Housing Slowdown  PF   Jun-14-2006
	Import Prices: One Month Does Not A Trend Make, But...  PF   Jun-11-2006
	Long-Term Inflation Expectations - April 27 vs. June 2, 2006  PF   Jun-08-2006
	Payrolls And Other Bearish Data Are Cause For A Pause At The June Meeting  PF   Jun-03-2006
	May 10 FOMC Minutes - Open Mouth or Open Market Policy?  PF   May-31-2006
	Real Retail Sales Off To Slow Start in Q2  PF   May-24-2006
	Fed Is Finding Confirmation Of Its Forecast  PF   May-16-2006
	Federal Reserve And Inflation Targeting - First Do No Harm  PF   May-05-2006
	GDP Is A Terrific Coincident Indicator  PF   May-03-2006
	Bernanke Hints at Near-Term FOMC Pause  PF   Apr-28-2006
	The LEI - The Rodney Dangerfield of Economic Statistics  PF   Apr-23-2006
	Commodity Prices and Consumer Prices - Just The Facts, Ma'am  PF   Apr-21-2006
	Inflation Targeting - Is Bernanke Really An Expert On The Great Depression?  PF   Mar-31-2006
	Fifteen In A Row For FOMC, Market Increases Bet On Sweet Sixteen  PF   Mar-30-2006
	Why The Fed Might Want To Take A Breather After Tuesday's Hike  PF   Mar-28-2006
	Fact-Checking Bernanke's Yield Curve Comments  PF   Mar-23-2006
	2005 Flow-of-Funds Data - I Report, You Decide  PF   Mar-19-2006
	Is Dave Leonhardt A Renter?  PF   Mar-07-2006
	Be Bullish On China/India Because of Their Supply, Not Demand  PF   Mar-03-2006
	Bernanke and Co. - Put Your High Beams On!  PF   Feb-19-2006
	Chairman Bernanke's Debut  PF   Feb-17-2006
	WaMu - A Leading Indicator of Initial Jobless Claims?  PF   Feb-17-2006
	The Bell Tolls For Toll Bros.  PF   Feb-09-2006
	Its Different This Time  PF   Feb-08-2006
	Corporate Profits Or Household Spending - Which Has Bigger Effect On Capex?  PF   Feb-07-2006
	The Yield Curve Inversion - It's Different This Time?  PF   Jan-05-2006
2005
	Yield Curve Inversion - Necessary But Not Sufficient Recession Condition  PF   Dec-21-2005
	Are Corporate Bondholders Chopped Liver?  PF   Dec-17-2005
	Households - Another Quarter Older and Deeper In Debt  PF   Dec-13-2005
	Appealing To Occam's Razor to Explain Gold Above $500  PF   Dec-10-2005
	Yield Curve vs. S&P 500 - Which One Should We Believe?  PF   Dec-07-2005
	Gold-Price Adjusted, Were Still In A Recession  PF   Dec-02-2005
	Greenspan's Legacy Of Debt  PF   Nov-17-2005
	Greenspan - The Guardian of Price Stability?  PF   Nov-16-2005
	Chairman Bernanke: The More Things Change, The More They Stay The Same  PF   Oct-29-2005
	The Fed: No Way Out?  PF   Oct-24-2005
	Hurricane Katrina - A Supply Shock Interacts With Preexisting Demand Restraint  PF   Sep-07-2005
	A Heretic On The FOMC?  PF   Sep-01-2005
	Hurricane Katrina Had No Silver Lining!  PF   Aug-31-2005
	INXS  PF   Aug-26-2005
	Greenspan Has Spoken, China Is Revaluing And I'm Reevaluating  PF   Jul-26-2005
	Falling Bond Yields Are A Sign Of Easier Monetary Conditions?  PF   Jul-09-2005
	Political Economic Reasons Why The Fed Is On The Cusp Of Pausing  PF   Jul-01-2005
	Is Restrictive Monetary Policy What Ails The Eurozone?  PF   Jun-30-2005
	What's Down With Bank Holdings of Mortgage-Backeds?  PF   Jun-28-2005
	Wilting Manufacturing vs. Vibrant Housing  PF   Jun-25-2005
	When Gold Really Starts To Glitter  PF   Jun-24-2005
	Glut vs. Weaker Economy, or Glut and Weaker Economy?  PF   Jun-23-2005
	Housing Affordability Is Plunging Even With Relatively Minor Rate Increases  PF   Jun-18-2005
	Labor Market Continues To Show Less Vigor  PF   Jun-17-2005
	Weak Retail Sales - Blame It On The Weather Or The Fed?  PF   Jun-15-2005
	All Currencies Beginning To Sink?  PF   Jun-14-2005
	Import Prices and the Renminbi - Let Sleeping Dogs Lie?  PF   Jun-11-2005
	The Yield Curve - Greenspan's Blind Spot?  PF   Jun-10-2005
	Regulatory Suasion - An Attempt At Deflating The Housing Bubble  PF   Jun-04-2005
	Why Don't Economists Follow The Leaders?  PF   May-23-2005
	Prospects and Implications of Chinese Yuan Revaluation  PF   May-08-2005
	Let's Give Greenspan His Due  PF   May-04-2005
	Households Run Record Deficit In Q1  PF   May-01-2005
	Case Study On Costs Of Hitching Your Wagon To A Dollar "Star" - Malaysia  PF   Apr-14-2005
	Households - Still Running On Empty!  PF   Apr-01-2005
	How Should The Fed Respond To Energy Prices?  PF   Mar-23-2005
	Is Ben Bernanke The "Reincarnation" Of Manley Johnson?  PF   Mar-12-2005
	Privatize Social Security Before I Spend Your Pension!  PF   Jan-28-2005
	The Real Social Security Issue  PF   Jan-08-2005
2004
	Flow-Of-Funds Stocking Stuffers  PF   Dec-22-2004
	Household Saving And Their Houses  PF   Dec-08-2004
	Thanksgiving - A Lot Of Help From Our Friends  PF   Nov-26-2004
	Tough Decisions Ahead For The Fed  PF   Nov-20-2004