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June 01, 2008

Market Update: My Way
by Dominick

Last chance to join!
(continue reading for more details)

"I planned each charted course;
Each careful step along the byway,
But more, much more than this,
I did it my way."

Well, here we are: the last chance for retail traders to join TTC. Just last week we were celebrating the reversal at 1440, a target we'd had for months, and anyone who read that update knew we also had a level at 1406, which marked a top this week. With the doors closing, Market Update will no longer be published on a regular weekly basis, and we really couldn't ask for a better ending to this chapter.

The week opened at support on many charts and indicators, and we had every reason to expect at least a modest rally. The extent of that rally, we knew, was going to depend on the market's reaction to 1387.50, a level that has popped up several times this year already. As you can see in the chart above, we got an initial failure there, and the market went on to spend several days vibrating at that level. When, on Thursday, 1387.50 showed up as strong support, we strapped ourselves in for a long to 1406. The high for the day was 1407 and at least a few members used the number for a short and took advantage of a sharp selloff in the final hour to another support level we'd watched for confirmation on the downside.

In addition to US and foreign indices and individual companies, TTC's forums cover a broad range of markets including currencies and commodities. In recent weeks, we've caught both hits of a double top in the euro as well as the waterfall decline shown in the chart below.

And even as oil has frustrated most with its erratic swings, we used unbiased Elliott wave analysis to call a range for a top in crude that so far has been hit and not broken. Since then, however, the wave count has become muddled, but we've switched to using our proprietary targets to continue producing strong risk/reward trades. As in all the hot markets currently, members are already aware of crucial support and resistance targets and are updated regularly. We also have a vibrant precious metals forum that not only called the recent top within days of the reversal, also had support at $850 for a relief rally that has played out to perfection. For more on where we are in precious metals, be sure to read Joe's Precious Points weekly update.

With the major indices obviously running up into resistance again at the end of the week, the bears must be licking their chops, waiting for another large decline to sink their teeth into. And maybe they get it, though there still is that support around 1397 and 1375 to contend with, as well as a few other numbers of which members are aware. A big move is shaping up from here, and we're willing to take it in either direction. But that sort of one-sided mentality, bullish or bearish, that only allows you to see the outcome you want, that can be a big problem for traders, and it's a big part of why I started TTC.

A few years ago I was spending a lot of time reading and posting on various websites about trading and technical analysis. While the market was in decline, the bearish leanings of most market analysts were appropriate and profitable. But starting in 2003 I began to feel strongly about the bullish potential of the market and was very disappointed to see that, everywhere I turned, most technicians continued to paint apocalyptic economic scenarios with massive stock market declines. Even worse, there were few even willing to accept the possibility that I might be right and the market could also go up.

Well, we all know what ended up happening. Stocks have had a huge run since those darker days, and the market is very good to those who pay attention when it's talking. A few traders that shared my frustration with the obviously biased analysis that was beginning to give Elliott wave theory a bad name, began to see the power of unbiased trading, and they became the first members at TTC. From the very earliest days throwing away market bias and trading what's in front of me has been a crucial component of my own personal trading approach and a cornerstone of TTC. More than anything, we simply understood that it was possible to realize a lot more profits playing both sides of the market.

But don't just take it from me. Here's a recent post from one of our moderators, Louis Riley, a Registered Investment Advisor and President of Riley Wealth Management:

Last weekend I was looking through some of my trading records from over a year ago, and I got a strange sense of déjà vu as I scrolled through the prints. Hadn't we spent time at 1360 and 1406 many, many times before?

That prompted me to document all of the major turns in the S&P 500 since the initial top before the Chinese warning crack on February 27, 2007.

Bottom line: as of the last major turn as of this writing on Thursday evening, May 29, 2008, the S&P is only 1.46% lower than where it was on February 22, 2007. Yet in that same 452 calendar day period of time the total points traveled in all of the turns is almost 1670 – more than one could have caught had the S&P gone from its all-time high to ZERO.

THAT IS WHY WE TRADE.

TTC is unique among market analysis sites in that it's configured as a forum wherein members actually participate in the analysis. Since opening our doors more than two years ago, our site has continued to grow, largely on a word-of-mouth basis, and a good majority of our members are professional and institutional traders, like Louis. In order to maintain the quality and integrity of our site, as well as to foster the sense of community we currently enjoy, we're no longer offering membership to retail traders as of Monday, June 2.

But even if you're not able to contribute to the discussions and just want to learn, your membership gives you access to the best real time, tradable analysis on the web at a price well below what other sites charge. Most of our members easily make back their monthly fee in a single trade. If you want daily updates on all these and other markets, if you want to learn how to trade short term time frames and access next week's charts posted in the weekly forum right now, it's time to decide now whether you will join the TTC community of traders. As of the closing bell Monday afternoon the doors will be closed to all but institutional traders. If you're really serious about trading, and want to learn more about what the TTC way has to offer you, the time to join is now.

Have a profitable and safe week trading, and remember:
"Unbiased Elliott Wave works!"

Dominick,
a.k.a. Spwaver
TradingTheCharts.com

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.

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