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June 08, 2008 Critical Week |
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6/8/2008 10:13:26 AM Friday's action could have set in place a series of events that. Welcome to the Daily stock barometer. This article comes out every day and gives our specific trading advice for the Nasdaq-100. If you're interested in following our signals and learning more about our system, then I invite you to click here and subscribe - since the market can turn on a dime and so too can our interpretation as the market gives its daily clues to the future. Or sign up for our free weekly newsletter, where we provide up to date articles from our various traders. We also offer a free weekly indicator chart if you visit our home page and scroll to the bottom. This chart will be updated each week, so be sure to check back frequently for updates. www.stockbarometer.com - don't forget to scroll to the bottom.
Stock Barometer Analysis We issued an intraday Sell Signal on Friday, placing us in Sell Mode. This action was taken given the current action of the market, the positioning of the barometer and that Friday was also a key reversal date, which I'll discuss further below. The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. Stock Barometer Cycle Time Since we entered a bearish position intraday on Friday, technically that is day one in our down cycle. Accordingly, Monday will be day two in our down cycle. The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position. Potential Cycle Reversal Dates 2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance. This is where it gets interesting is you've been following our market timing for some time. There are various indicators we use to determine signals and given that Friday was a key reversal day, we were looking for the market to reverse - when it did, we took action. This is a risky play in that the Qs didn't break their downtrend and they may have put in enough negative energy to result in the market continuing higher. We'll obviously see on Monday - what we'll be looking for is a continuation of Friday's move lower. My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here. 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31, 1/11/08. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates based on 'other' cycle work were 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16. The following work is based on my spread/momentum indicators for the QQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'. QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ)
The QQQQ Spread Indicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be different from the Stock Barometer. It's meant to give us an idea of the next turn in the market. Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD)
To trade Gold, utilize the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. This gives us a general gage to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets, as well as to assists us in the entry of positions in our stock trading service. US Dollar Index Spread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)
To trade the US Dollar, I'd utilize the Power Shares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US Dollar Index Bearish Fund. Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT)
To trade Bonds, I recommend Lehman's 20 year ETF AMEX:TLT. Note that the direction of bonds can have an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down. OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO) To trade OIL, utilize AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction can have an impact on the stock market. Supporting Secondary Indicator
I monitor over a hundred technical indicators, some that are widely followed and some that are proprietary. These indicators break down the market internals, sentiment and money flow and give us unique insight into the market. I feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook - and to give you an education on what professional traders utilize. Summary of Daily Outlook We issued an intra day signal on Friday to go into Sell Mode as we see the potential for the market to move lower into the end of June, roughly around the 24th to the 27th. That means if you are trading the Qs, you were able to exchange your long position with a short - with the Rydex service, you should have had the exchange executed by the end of the day. We don't normally issue intraday alerts, but in an effort to be more responsive to market conditions, we may periodically make intraday shifts. I still wouldn't expect it to be the norm. That being said, as I outline above, there is a little risk in our call that the market continues to hold this trend. But we'll know relatively early on Monday if that's going to be the case. If you visit our site and look at the weekly free chart (at the bottom of the home page) you'll see where we stand in our seasonality chart and our 20/40-week cycle. You'll definitely find it interesting. As for the series of events, we do need something to cause the market to capitulate. It doesn't have to happen now, but it will happen eventually. Welcome to the Daily stock barometer. This article comes out every day and gives our specific trading advice for the Nasdaq-100. If you're interested in following our signals and learning more about our system, then I invite you to click here and subscribe - since the market can turn on a dime and so too can our interpretation as the market gives its daily clues to the future. Or sign up for our free weekly newsletter, where we provide up to date articles from our various traders. We also offer a free weekly indicator chart if you visit our home page and scroll to the bottom. This chart will be updated each week, so be sure to check back frequently for updates. www.stockbarometer.com - don't forget to scroll to the bottom. If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com. Regards,
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Jay DeVincentis Trading involves high risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Stockbarometer.com and all individuals affiliated with Stockbarometer.com assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. Patrice V. Johnson's - J.E.D.I. Trader Explosive Stock Trader Stock Options Speculator Angelo Campione's Advantage Credit Spreads Lynn T's 1-2-3 PLUS Alert ETF Advisor Fundamental Trader Alert Daily Stock Barometer QQQQ Trader and Rydex Trader: issued by 10pm in the evening when the Barometer system issues a Buy or Sell Signal. Stock Barometer Premier Membership Click Here to visit our subscribe page learn more about any of our services. Earn Money referring us to your friends, family and other traders. Click here for details: http://www.stockbarometer.com/affiliate.aspx To ensure delivery and prevent this e-mail from being delivered to your bulk mail folder, please add our 'From' e-mail address, info@stockbarometer.com, to your address book. Important Disclosure Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update. For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure. Copyright © 2004-2008 Investment Research
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