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July 10, 2008

... And They All Fall Down
by Richard Shaw

There is plenty of bad business news out there, including with icons such as GE, AIG, banks of all sorts, municipal bond insurance companies and more.

Consumers are squeezed by energy, food prices, falling home prices and limitations on credit -- and municipalities aren't apparently limiting their budget growth (and taxes) in line with their tax payers growth in income.

US investors are facing likely increases in taxes on capital gains and dividends after the near-term elections.

Key emerging markets, except for oil exporting ones, are experiencing growing inflation and are raising interest rates as a result.

The professionals are a mixed bunch, as usual, some bullish and some bearish.

The charts are not a pleasant site. All broad equity indices are down.

Only the energy sector is up in the US and globally. Only Russia, Brazil and the GCC countries show stock market life, presumably because they are important oil exporters. Canada is just about breaking even -- but the rest ... not so good.

Bonds have been a fairly safe haven. Energy and other commodities have been riding high, but may hit an affordability wall that could change short-term performance dynamics.

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC

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