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August 09, 2008

Equities Soar, Oil Slides
by Mike Paulenoff

Equities are on a roll. Looking at the Nasdaq through the daily chart of the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ), we see that the Q's closed at 47.31, just above the declining 200 DMA at 47.25. This is a very positive sign that today's upmove SHOULD continue towards my next optimal target zone of 48.20/50.

We will know more on Monday at this time, when the Q's either will, or will not, confirm upside follow-through. Should the Q's fail to do so, and close beneath 46.85/80 (-1.1%), then I will be more inclined to think that the countertrend rally scenario is attempting to trap lots of folks on the long side.

Meanwhile, oil is pressing lower. Friday's $5 decline in crude oil has pressed prices to test the sharply rising 150 DMA, which is barely containing the intense selling pressure at this point.

If $115.00 cannot hold further weakness, then we should set our sights on the $110-$109 area, which will represent a test of the sharply rising 200 DMA and the 62% Fibonacci support level of entire February '07-July '08 advance.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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