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September 05, 2008

Contrarian
by Gary Tanashian

We all want to be one don't we? Unlike the automatons sitting in those convention centers boosting their respective major political parties, we want to get outside the box; gain an edge and a different view of things. Don't we? In the markets we had damn well better.

If you are a regular reader of the blog you know that is what you seek; a contrary positioning to separate from the crowd because after all, what are the masses? They are ASSets waiting to give you their money. But it is not that easy is it? No, first you will need to endure a rush of wave after wave of negatively reinforcing news and events. You will endure Cramer (credit where it's due: great short term call on gold Jim), Kudlow and the Fast Money boyz and their flagship financial infomercial dispenser, CNBC working overtime to feed mainstream perceptions that may ultimately be very wrong.

If you were as die hard as me, as opposed to being a strict trader, you have felt the pain despite being aware of the 'all one commodity complex' hazard that has gone off in precious metals like a time bomb. But if you are a for real, alternatively wired contrary sort you are getting so bullish right now you can feel a strange greed welling up within your being at the thought of things finally aligning in a way that makes sense. This is because you employed the number one rule; you managed risk and ALWAYS retained the ability, through cash reserves to take advantage of the supposedly unthinkable.

I will not sell value into fear. I am greedily watching several things - now including oil, on which I was bearish for the longest time, but mostly the deeply discounted gold stocks - because genuine fear is beginning to permeate the commodity complex and while the public and political conventions are still babbling about high oil and inflation (or the high prices that result from inflation), you and I know that the manic casino has begun its swing to the opposite end of the spectrum. Those that have not yet departed the 'inflation trade' are casting weary and panicked eyes on the exits. Meanwhile, you and I wait. We wait with our fears and our greed somewhere deep inside. But we keep it contained. We remain rational and patient.

This is the deflation scare. You see it before the general public and you know what the result will be. You remember Dr. Bernanke's speech from 2002 Making Sure 'IT' Doesn't Happen Here and you realize that he did not have the bullets to fight 'IT' as recently as a month and a half ago with the US Dollar threatening to crash and inflation expectations running out of control. You realize that a threshold of noise about rising oil occurred this summer and that the masses will take some time to come around to their next stance; DEMANDING that the Fed do something to make sure 'IT' doesn't happen here.

As posted recently, this will be the point where gold wakes up and says "Errr, I think that's my cue".

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

Disclaimer: biiwii.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.

Copyright © 2005-2009 Gary Tanashian

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