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December 14, 2008

Shekels on Dollar
by Boris Chikvashvili

Dear Reader,

To be ANTI-SOPITALIST means to stand with those who do not like unproductive parts of society getting rich on the backs of productive people. There is only one reason prices should be rising, some people do not work their fair share and make it more expensive for others to have the necessities of life. So, how do the SOPITALISTS get rich? They must be doing something. Yes they do. They use their connections and money to stand first in the cycle of money that government recycles endlessly. Let us make sure we all understand. Government is in the transaction business. No transaction no taxes collected. Not only that, no transaction - no opportunities to arbitrage on getting first in the chain to collect most and first, be that by being beneficiary of government spending and/or arbitraging the information related to this. This all classifies as the "freedom of speech" and "free market" of course. Notice the words free there. Indeed it is free for those connected to the elite and that is why they spend gazillions to elect their people. You, now, understand as well why the elite hates deflation (of assets, most of which they own).

Why do we need this little introduction up there? Because, when you see on your TV screen all those "free capitalists" supporting any/all government actions/bailouts, you should know why. All of them, almost exclusively that get the access to (sopitalist) media are SOPITALISTS. Government likes them and most of them represent big corporations. The big corporations are big tax collectors. That is why they are allowed to become too big to fail. Now they can scare us about their failure causing big problems. On the other hand they are most efficient method to collect the taxes (from their employees and/or retail services, EXXON anyone?). All governments claim, they are for a little guy, well you know better now, that government is for and by people who and only who stand to benefit from government "transactions".

Markets.

Currencies.

We believe that the knowing/guessing currency direction is the single best way to anticipate all other economic events. We pay special attention to this largest and, in many, ways unknown markets. Average person can tell you a lot about stock market, but may not be able to name tree currencies of the world.

We continue to stick to our forecast stated 3 years ago that US Dollar bottoms (bottomed) PASSOVER 2008 (March/April) and tops PASSOVER 2009 (March/MAY). Below we bring two graphs, before and after. They depict the ISRAELI SHEKEL Projections and Reality. EURO can easily be substituted for SHEKEL as the latter, being a currency of a developed country neighboring EUROPE is bound to behave like EURO.

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As can be seen the SHEKEL behaved largely as we projected and EURO has conformed even better. We think that SHEKEL is much more susceptible to manipulation than EURO. We continue to maintain that Dollar will have tough time after the top coming in spring 2009.

Stock Market.

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While, the past seems to be well predicted by YBR, the future remains to be seen. So, what is the prediction of YBR for the next couple months? It predicts a possibility of the market do have lows (hopefully local, but could be global) early January and late January before a more powerful takeoff (YBR is supposed only to predict the shape of the market, not the absolute levels. But it has done that, very well, too). Original YBR predictions can be seen in the archives of this site. On a more longer term bases, we believe that markets are for tougher times after 2009/10 and into 2010-2013. This period may well include wars and devastation at many spots of the planet.

Bonds

Our call for a mega Bear market in bonds from last article still stands in place, but we realized and provided even lower set of limits (Attraction Points we call them) at http://borisc.blogspot.com once it became clear that former ones were threatened to be broken (search "FIXED INCOME" there).

GOLD and Energy to base little longer than the GOLD bugs would like (see clickme-> MEGA CALLS as we predicted their temporary demise). We think Anywhere from October 2008 to March 2009 could see these investments be in lower to sideways moves, good for accumulation.

We hope we did not forget any major investment of interest to you Dear Readers and if we did and/or would like more specifics, please visit http://borisc.blogpot.com and we will answer you questions.

Now, for those that would like to have more advanced day-to-day, week-to-week view of each one of these financial instruments, we have the reports that have/detailed with astonishing details where these markets will go. Details of our services can be found at ANTI-SOPITALIST

As mentioned before we give a lot of free information (ASSET ALLOCATION and CHARTS, MARKET PRESSURE-daily, question and answer etc), because we believe in what 12th century great Georgian Philosopher and Poet Shota Rustavey said.

"You Find What You Give, All Else Is Lost"

Boris Chikvashvili
borisc.blogspot.com

In short... I was supposed to be a theoretical physicist (Russia+Jerusalem Hebrew University, MS Physics, with distinction, toyed with QUARKS). Somewhere on the road to PHD I have discovered, first the Computers - at Carnegie Mellon University (MS EE, Fathered UNIX, adopted WINDOWS), and second Finance on Wall Street.President ITI,(Computer/Finance Consulting Firm) Consulted AT&T,IBM,SUN,CITIBANK,JP MORGAN, LEHMAN, MICROSOFT. Designed/implemented Trading Systems - BLOOMBERG LLP. There is nothing more to say professionally speaking.

Please Note: The opinions expressed here are only for education purposes and do not constitute the advice in any shape of form.

Please note, we provide consulting services in Trading Systems Programming (BLOOMBERG/ TRADESTATION/WAVE59/EQUIS any/all others), Trading/Econometric Model Building, Trader Training, Technology ( Tele/Data Com, Programming C,C++ etc). DataProcessing Center and Internet Serivice Setup/monitoring etc. Also daily Attraction Point ( Potential turning point ) Alerts for number of Stocks/Futures of your choice. WriteTO: bchikvash@aol.com Dear Friends, Our relationship? no change.

Copyright © 2006-2009 Boris Chikvashvili

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