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March 27, 2009

Bulls Remain in Near-term Control
by Mike Paulenoff

As the week closes, let's take a look at the BIG picture of the weekly cash S&P 500. Let's notice that earlier this week the SPX hurdled - and has sustained - above its nearest-term down trendline (Jan-Mar) at 795, with the price structure trading about 3% above the trendline as well as about 3% above its flattening 10-week moving average.

In addition, the weekly momentum and stochastics are in very healthy condition and appear to be in the heart of their upside cycle rotations from oversold to some level of (bear market) overbought condition (+60 rather than +75 to +90).

The fact that the market has been up 11 of the last 15 sessions despite some intense micro-term overbought conditions indicates to me that the powerful intermediate-term bullish signals likely are STILL pre-dominant, which if accurate means that weakness will be muted until the intermediate-term technicals run their course on the upside.

Near-term, as long as the SPX does not implode beneath critical support at 795-788, the bulls remain in directional control. Traders may also want to watch the 803.50 level, which is the dominant March up-trendline. The longer the S&P 500 futures remain above that trendline Sunday night into early Monday, the more likely the correction will run its course ahead of another thrust late Monday into Tuesday am, which projects next to 835-845, or 83.50-84.50 for traders of the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (AMEX: SPY).

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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