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April 17, 2009

More Downside for Gold; Bottom in for Natural Gas
by Mike Paulenoff

Just a word about gold, which since 2/16 has lost about 12% in value, while the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY) has gained about 7%. The chart pattern on the daily Spot Gold chart from August 2008 to the present argues for still more weakness that presses prices towards a test and likely break of the early April low of $865.10 - on the way to an optimal next target zone of $848-$843 prior to another significant rally effort.

At this juncture, only a sudden upmove that hurdles and sustains above $901.00 will trigger signals that the correction from $1007 is complete.

Looking at the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG), the bottoming pattern (or at least my perception of one) continued to unfold this past week, with the all-time low established Monday at 14.16, which appears to have been successfully retested on Thursday at 14.29. Friday's recovery has not yet inflicted any meaningful damage to the nearest-term downtrend. However, the underlying momentum indicators coupled with the "megaphone" pattern, in addition to the creation of a base-like formation between 14.15 and 15.15, represent a compelling technical argument that a meaningful low is developing in the UNG.

To trigger initial buy signals, the UNG must hurdle and sustain above 15.15.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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Copyright © 2007-2009 Mike Paulenoff

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