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May 07, 2009

Strong as a Bull, or Overbought?
by Marty Chenard

If you look back 22 months, to July 2007, there have been 4 occasions where the 30 day Relative Strength has been 58 or higher.

Those occasions are on the chart below.

Start at the left and observe the first three occasions where I drew the vertical white lines with arrows.

What do you notice?

If you say that the market peaked at each of those occasions, you would be correct.

So now, it is May 7th. and yesterday, the RSI closed at 60, the same level as July 2007. The NYA (New York Stock Exchange Index) has been charging up as if on steroids during the past few days. But still, it is now at an overbought level where market peaks were found in the past few years. That sounds more like caution is the prudent thing right now. Overbought conditions can often last longer than some investors expect, but one thing is clear ... risks levels are now elevated.

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Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

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