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June 05, 2009

Natural Gas Heats Up
by Mike Paulenoff

The U.S. Nat Gas Fund ETF (UNG) was up for most of the session Friday, closing flat, while the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) closed down more than three-quarters of a percent. My pattern work is warning me that crude oil prices are peaking, but that natural gas prices are bottoming. Could that actually happen?

I have been in this business long enough not to doubt what I think the charts are telling me. With that in mind, let's have a look at the pattern that continues to develop in the UNG. The UNG closed more than 40 cents off its intraday low and was threatening intraday to hurdle key micro resistance at 15.02 on the way to revisit its prior rally peak at 16.10. If such a scenario unfolds, then a hurdle of 16.10 will be considered extremely bullish and should trigger upside acceleration towards 17.75-18.00 thereafter.

At this juncture, only a sudden downside reversal and break of 14.00 will begin to compromise my current outlook.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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Copyright © 2007-2009 Mike Paulenoff

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