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July 07, 2009

How to Play a Stock Market Correction
by Prieur du Plessis

Stock markets might just have finished a particularly strong quarter - with the S&P 500 Index gaining 15.2% for its best quarter since 1998, the MSCI World Index rising by 19.7% and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index adding 33.6% - but started to look tired last month, and July is also off to a shaky start.

Volume has been declining on rally days and expanding on declining days, which can be construed as bearish action. On July 2, Lowry's Buying Power Index closed one point below where the Index was at the March 9 stock market lows, i.e. Buying Power is now weaker than it was at the early March bottom.

As doubts persist over the strength of the global economic recovery, the S&P 500 Index, MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index have dropped by 5.0%, 5.9% and 6.3% respectively from their June highs.

Regarding the US markets, an excellent contrary indicator worth keeping an eye on is the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index. The Index peaked at 52.7% in early March, coinciding with the rally lows, and has since declined by more than half. However, the Index seems to be bouncing off a support line while the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) - a momentum-type oscillator - has turned up from an oversold level for the first time since last May. This would indicate the end of the stock market rally.

Source: StockCharts.com

Considering the percentage of global stock markets trading above their 50- and 200-day lines respectively makes for interesting analysis. Most countries (89%) are trading above the 200-day average - an indicator of a bullish primary trend. As far as the secondary trend is concerned, 55% of the countries are still trading above the 50-day average, having corrected from an overbought level of 100% a few weeks ago. One would typically expect this measure to decline to lower levels in order to more fully correct the massive spring rally.

David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist of Gluskin Sheff & Associates, said: "... for the near-term ... the testing process [for the S&P 500] does seem to be in place right now and carries with it some well-established investment patterns. Over the last year, we have seen four other testing phases and they all failed as the market did break to new lows. With the proviso that the S&P 500 hit an interim peak of 946 back on June 12, here is what the recent historical record tells us to expect (at a minimum, take profits).

• "The average length of the testing phase is 53 calendar days and 38 business days (versus 45 calendar days and 33 business days for the interim bear market rallies).

• On average, the S&P 500 undergoes a correction of more than 20%.

• The sectors that led during the rally, corrected most during the sell-off. This means that financials, consumer discretionary, materials and industrials should underperform in the next few months, while health-care, consumer staples, utilities and telecom services should emerge as the leaders.

• Market volatility more than doubles, on average.

• Bonds rally, with the 10-year Treasury note yield down nearly 15 basis points, on average.

• The flight to safety during these periods implies that the Canadian dollar declines (on average by 10%), while the trade-weighed US dollar rallies by more than 6%.

• Commodity prices decline by an average of 15%, again as cyclical trades unwind.

• Corporate spreads (Baa) widen by an average of more than 60 basis points; it is very important to be focused on high-quality paper during these market-testing periods as high-yield spreads widen, on average, by more than 300 basis points (and keep in mind the vast outperformance, which is typical during bear market rallies).

• What we discovered during this process was that gold performed quite well during both the bear market rallies and the subsequent selloffs (and despite the flows back in the US dollar). This may be an indication that gold is in a secular bull market."

Rosenberg concludes: "We found that health care, staples, utilities, high-quality bonds and the US dollar work best during these retests."

Meanwhile, Teun Draaisma, highly-regarded equity strategist at Morgan Stanley, argued there are "plenty of opportunities to make money beyond the market direction call" by pursuing a strategy that he describes as "the middle ground", as reported by the Financial Times.

"Macro and the next big market move have become everyone's favourite investment topic over the past two years. We suspect it is time to move on to the micro of sectors, stocks and styles," he said.

Draaisma's large "middle ground" of investment opportunities include "the forgotten market" Japan and "sectors that are cheap and under-owned with improving fundamentals" such as utilities, telcos and energy. Also "buying stocks with a management change, financial restructuring or a change of focus can be very lucrative".

I said the following on Sunday in my "Words from the Wise" review: "In my opinion, US stock markets are mapping out a base development formation, whereas a number of emerging markets have already bottomed out and subsequently confirmed primary uptrends. However, in the short term it is quite likely that markets could consolidate further and possibly retrace more of the prior gains."

While investors wait for Mr Market to show his hand, a cautious approach is warranted but that should not preclude one from finding stocks that look cheap.

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Dr Prieur du Plessis
investmentpostcards.com

With 25 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management, Dr Prieur du Plessis is one of the most experienced and well-known investment professionals in South Africa. More than 1 000 of his articles on investment-related topics have been published in various regular newspaper, journal and Internet columns. He also published a book, Financial Basics: Investment, in 2002.

He holds the following degrees: BSc (Quantity Surveying) (Cape Town), HonsB (B & A) (cum laude) (Stellenbosch), MBA (cum laude) (Stellenbosch); and DBA (Doctor of Financial Management) (Stellenbosch).

Prieur is chairman of the Plexus group of companies, which he founded in 1995. Previously he was general manager: portfolio management at Sanlam, responsible for the management of investment portfolios with total assets in excess of $5 billion.

Plexus is a pioneer in the mutual fund industry and has achieved a number of firsts under Prieur's leadership. These include the authoritative Plexus Survey, a quarterly analysis of the consistency of the performance of unit trust management companies, the Plexus Offshore Survey, the Plexus Unit Trust Indices, and the PlexCrown Fund Ratings.

Plexus is the South African partner of John Mauldin, American author of the most widely distributed investment newsletter in the world, and also has an exclusive licensing agreement with California-based Research Affiliates for managing and distributing its enhanced Fundamental Index™ methodology in the Pan-African area.

In 2001 Prieur received the Santam/AHI Business Leader of the Year award for corporate leadership, business acumen and entrepreneurial flair. He was also profiled in the book South Africa's Leading Managers (2006). Plexus received the AHI/Old Mutual Enterprise of the Year award in 1997 and was also included in the book South Africa's Most Promising Companies (2005).

Prieur is 52 years old and lives with his wife, TV producer and presenter Isabel Verwey, and two children in Welgemoed, Cape Town. His recreational activities include long-distance running, motor cycling and reading. He belongs to the Cape Town Club, Johannesburg Country Club, Gordon's Bay Yacht Club and Swiss Social & Sports Club.

Copyright © 2008-2009 Dr Prieur du Plessis

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