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August 05, 2009

Climate Change
by Bob Hoye

July 28, 2009

"Gore's Hometown Nashville Breaks 1877 Cold Temp Record"

The headline is from a report by Associated Press that July 21 recorded the lowest low temperature for that date since 1877. The irony is exquisite.

From time to time, we comment on the blatant promotion that the planet is "unhealthy" and can only be cured by enormous increases in taxation and regulation. Our January 2008 essay "Intellectual Hysteria" was prompted by the sudden increase in volcanic activity in the Kamchatka Peninsula. Although of moderate dimensions there were enough eruptions to conclude a moderate degree of global cooling.

The point of the essay was that the mania about "Global Warming", which had morphed into "Climate Change", was another example of intellectuals getting excited about personal revelations about a disaster that needed remedy. One example brewed up in the 1860s when England's leading economist, Stanley Jevons, had visions that civilization as they enjoyed it then would end as the primary source of energy - coal - would run out. Modern culture was to blame.

"Peak Oil" has been the equivalent of Jevon's The Coal Question, published in 1865.

The hysteria about massive energy shortages in 2008 was similar to those that crested with crude oil prices in the 1970s. The main difference was that energy crisis was accompanied by the mania about "Global Cooling".

If anything since early 2008, the hysteria has increased. On June 28, Nobel economist, Paul Krugman, wrote "And as I watched the deniers make their arguments, I couldn't help thinking I was watching treason - treason against the planet". Krugman, a leading economist, seems as caught up with intellectual hysteria as Jevons was in 1865. It is hoped that his next whim is not to design airplanes, or elevators.

There has been a series of unusual weather reports:

May 31:

"Frost advisory for New York State" - Lowest temperatures for that date since 1966.

June 6:

"Snow falls in Western North Dakota, not seen in June in 60 years." "Saturday's high temp in Green Bay was 52. That set the record for the lowest high on June 6. Previous was 53 in 1935."

June 15:

"So far, June's chill is one for the record - coldest since records began 50 years ago." That was at Chicago's airport.

June 20:

"Thursday was the 14th consecutive day to stay below 100 degrees. That's the longest stretch of its kind in June since 1913." That was in Arizona.

July 1:

"New York City - coldest June since 1958"

July 15:

"May broke records from one end of the country to the other - it was the coldest May on record."

The last one was from New Zealand, and goes rather well with the record in Nashville.

That global temperatures have been declining extends beyond anecdotal reports. For a constantly updated chart of temperature:

www.drroyspencer.com

Of interest is that global warmongers have been very excited about the 0.75 C to 1.00 C increase over the past 30 years or so. In the past few years temps have declined by about three/quarters of a degree and the promoters have intensified their efforts to ram their beliefs into regulation.

July 9:

"We have just 96 months to avert irresistible climate and ecosystem collapse, and all that goes with it."

That was Prince Charles on his latest hobby-horse. And the real ambition of the left has always been full control over everyone's life. Always for the public's own good, of course.

July 10:

"A climate change response must have at its heart a redistribution of wealth and resources." That gem is from Friends of the Earth (www.foei.org)

July 23:

"July is on track for the second coolest on record."

That is for New York City on data back to 1869.

As the left is trying so hard to ignore, global temperatures have been declining significantly, forced lower by diminished solar activity and an increase in moderate volcanic activity.

By May last year the extension of the minimum on the usual 11-year solar cycle was becoming very interesting and by July sufficient to inspire our cartoon. It is attached and the message is still working.

Deepest Solar Minimum Since 1913

The following tables the numbers as at July 27:

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 17 Days

2009 Total: 159 Days (76%)

Since 2004: 670 Days

Typical Solar Minimum: 485 Days

The count on the solar minimum begins with the first spotless day, and in February solar physicists defined this as the deepest solar minimum since 1913. It continues.

www.spaceweather.com is one site that keeps the count current.

For those who want to review some real science on the subject:

www.friendsofscience.org

Earlier in the year we pointed out that hundreds of thousands of years of data show that warming trends lead increases in atmospheric carbon by some 400 to 800 years. Our conclusion has been that the carbon-man-caused-warming story is the greatest blunder in the name of science since the Vatican insisted that the solar system revolved around the earth.

The karma of geophysics continues to overwhelm the dogma of global warming religions.

"You must know that the world has grown old, and does not remain in its former vigor. It bears witness to its own decline. The rainfall and the sun's warmth are both diminishing; the metals are nearly exhausted; the husbandsman is failing in the fields."

- Cyprian, c 250 A. D.

Bob Hoye
Institutional Advisors

The opinions in this report are solely those of the author. The information herein was obtained from various sources; however we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from such securities, if any, may fluctuate and that each securitys price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance.

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Copyright © 2003-2009 Bob Hoye

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