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August 28, 2009

Should You be Bold or Cautious Now?
by Marty Chenard

... It was April 2003 and investors were tired of the old Bear market and wondering when it would end.

The number of New Daily Highs on the New York Stock Exchange spend almost a full year under the 100 per day level ... in fact, it spend about 6 months with the number of New Daily Highs below 50 per day.

And then it happened ... The Number of New Daily Highs went from below 50, to above 50, and then to above 100. From 100 it just kept climbing to 200, to 300, to 400 and higher. After the 100+ level, the new Bull Market was launched as seen in today's first chart below.

This is one of the charts that we post every day on our paid subscriber site. For this chart, we say that: A minimum of 100 is a very important level in a rally. 150 is what we want to see ... and we want to see the trend going up, not down.

What does the current chart look like? See the next chart for the answer ...

From last October to this past June, the New York Stock Exchange New Highs have been doggedly stuck below 50.

And then ... we moved up above 50 in July, and then above 100, and then above 150. But then we stopped, and started trending down ... below 100. Yesterday, we were at 61, still above 50 but below 100. The New Highs picture doesn't scream "Bull Market" like many are articulating. There is more work to do before we hit the desired levels.

For now, we are still moving down from the 159 peak level we reached on August 3rd. and that creates a "caution condition". We need to reverse the current down trend ... and, we need to see the New Highs move back up above the 100 level.

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Marty Chenard
StockTiming.com
Asheville, NC 28805
Tel: 828-296-1200

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