Printer Friendly

eMail Article

September 11, 2009

Precious Metals - What Do I Do Now?
by David Morgan

It seems more and more people are waking up to the fact that gold and silver are not only moving up but are also much safer investments currently than any other alternative. At the present time, I treat the commodity differently than I treat the underlining mining equities. As far as buying bullion or coins, basically I think investors should buy them at any time. Certainly you're better off buying silver at $15.00 than you are if you're buying it at $20.00, but the metals themselves, from a long-term perspective, will preserve your wealth and possibly multiply it. Many agree that the real metal is your core position. That is the investment that really counts the most.

After that's accomplished then you can move into a higher risk-to-reward profile, such as your underlying mining equities. I have found those to be actually better risk/reward profiles than futures or options. This is where timing plays a more important part, because these markets can be very dull for a fairly long period of time, as we've witnessed during this long consolidation. And their moves can be extraordinary to both the up- and the downside. Many of the juniors that have substantial merit are still undervalued, relative to where they were a few years ago when gold was at the $800.00 level.

We have a long way to go to the upside for the mining equities. But mining equities trade as stocks. In other words, normally, if the general stock market is not performing well, most of the mining stocks won't either. Of course there are always exceptions. If a company makes a great discovery, that stock will take off; or if a company misstates their financials, their stock will go down substantially. But generally, the mining equities pretty much go with the general stock market.

A bit of caution is advised here, because there is a point -- and I believe we're approaching it rather soon -- where the mining equities in general will go opposite to the general stock market. So there will be a day when you'll see the general stock market going to the downside and the metal stocks going to the upside. Again, I think we're getting close but think it will actually be taking place in 2010. It might start before the end of this year; at this point, it is a difficult call to make, as gold is moving around the $1,000.00 level again.

It is my belief that most people who are going to participate in the gold and silver market from the next leg up to the top are going to do it through the stock market. Most people are not that comfortable buying physical gold and silver, although it's the easiest investment you can make. Basically, it's a phone call . . . send your money and get your metal. It's literally that simple. Yet as simple as that is, many people will not buy the physical but will jump into the mining shares.

Most people have some type of trading platform, Ameritrade, Scottrade, E*TRADE, you name it. They've got a stock portfolio of some type and it's very simple for them to sit there and press a mouse and buy a stock. That is what is going to take these mining equities to heights we've probably never seen before. We've still got some more work to do, as far as I'm concerned, going through the general stock market, the general malaise that is hitting the American and world economies, and how that's going to play out in the short term. I'm rather cautious. Longer term, again, you're going to see more and more interest in anything gold and silver related, particularly in the stock market.

It is a distinct possibility that buying the physical metal is going to be tougher and tougher at some point. We witnessed that last summer for a fair amount of time, several weeks. The premiums on the physical metal were extraordinary high, relative to what they had been in the past. This was because there was a demand squeeze. In other words, there was a strong demand and the amount of metal that was being put into the market was rather low, relative to the demand. So the premiums went up and up and up, and again stayed there for several weeks.

The premiums are more reasonable right now. But I think the summer of 2008 was a precursor to what we can expect in the future. There could be a time when some dealers are flat out of silver. It's just too hard to get. The dealer might think they have to pay the wholesaler too big a premium so might not bother with it. Let us not overstate the situation because we're not there, but we did get a hint of it already.

Most people are probably going to look to the gold and silver equities. They might think, "Oh, the heck with it -- I don't want to pay a large premium on a gold coin or a silver bullion coin when XYZ Mining I just read about on the Internet is going to go to the moon. Get me in." That is going to bring more and more people into the sector as time moves forward.

It is an honor to be.

Sincerely,

David Morgan
Silver-Investor.com

Mr. Morgan has followed the silver market daily for over thirty years. Much of this Web site, www.silver-investor.com, is devoted to education about the precious metals.

Mr. Morgan has been published in The Herald Tribune, Futures magazine, The Gold Newsletter, Resource Consultants, Resource World, Investment Rarities, The Idaho Observer, Barron's, and The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Morgan does weekly Money, Metals and Mining Review for Kitco. He is hosted monthly on Financial Sense with Jim Puplava. Mr. Morgan was published in the Global Investor regarding Ten Rules of Silver Investing, which you can receive for free. His book Get the Skinny on Silver Investing is available on Amazon or the link provided. His private Internet-only newsletter, The Morgan Report, is $129.99 annually. To suscribe to the Morgan Report click here.

Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to completeness or accuracy. Because individual investment objectives vary, this Summary should not be construed as advice to meet the particular needs of the reader. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any action taken as a result of reading this independent market research is solely the responsibility of the reader. Stone Investment Group is not and does not profess to be a professional investment advisor, and strongly encourages all readers to consult with their own personal financial advisors, attorneys, and accountants before making any investment decision. Stone Investment Group and/or independent consultants or members of their families may have a position in the securities mentioned. Investing and speculation are inherently risky and should not be taken without professional advice. By your act of reading this independent market research letter, you fully and explicitly agree that Stone Investment Group will not be held liable or responsible for any decisions you make regarding any information discussed herein.

Copyright © Silver Investor 2006-2009 All rights are reserved.

Image rendition and html coding Copyright © 2000-2009 SafeHaven.com

« Opinions expressed at SafeHaven are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of SafeHaven or its management. Articles are available via RSS/XML. Please visit RSSHelp for instructions. »