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September 30, 2009

This Sounds Familiar
by Guy Lerner

There is a strong trend. Negative divergences in an up trend or positive divergences in a down trend (between price and momentum oscillators that measure price) begin to show up on the weekly charts. Traders position themselves for a trend reversal as the divergences are indicative of slowing momentum. The reversal never comes, and the trend continues in the same direction often times accelerating as traders bail out of losing positions.

Sounds familiar? We have seen this in equities this year as prices bolted higher in mid July, and we have seen this in the Dollar Index as a continuation of the down trend that started in April. This is the "this time is different" scenario.

So what is the big deal? Well our key asset, the Dollar Index, is forming a positive divergence on the weekly charts. See figure 1, a weekly chart of the Dollar Index.

Figure 1. Dollar Index/ weekly

Positive divergence bars between a momentum oscillator that measures prices and price itself are highlighted by the pink prices within the gray oval. As can be seen, closes above these price bars led to an intermediate trend reversal or a close below the lows of these positive divergence bars resulted in an acceleration of the trend lower.

So with the positive divergence in place on the weekly, a close above the highs (77.33) of this price bar would result in the down trend being stymied. A close below the lows (76.49) of this positive divergence bar would likely result in an acceleration of the downtrend as traders cover their losing positions. (Anecdotally, much of my email recently has suggested that many traders are positioned for a reversal in the Dollar Index, so we shall see if "this time is different".) In any case, this acceleration of prices could come to fruition as there is very little support between current prices and the lows seen in April, 2008.

Lastly, a weekly close above the pivot low point at 79.46 would likely result in a new up trend.

And one final note: The Dollar Index -that same key asset to follow - that has been driving returns in both equities and commodities is down today. Surprisingly, equities are down too. Commodities will remain the beneficiary of a falling Dollar. Equities should start to struggle in such an environment as inflationary concerns (real or perceived mount) and the notion that no country has ever devalued its way to prosperity takes hold.

Guy M. Lerner
http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/

Disclaimer: Guy M. Lerner is the editor and founder of The Technical Take blog. His commentary on the financial markets is based upon information thought to be reliable and is not meant as investment advice. Under no circumstances does the information in his columns represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Lerner may on occasion hold positions in the securities mentioned in his columns and on the Web site; in all instances, all positions are fully disclosed at http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/. However, their positions may change at anytime. For more information on any of the above, please review The Technical Take's full Terms of Use and Privacy Policy (link below). While Lerner cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your comments to: guy@thetechnicaltake.com.

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