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April 29, 2004

Golden Globes and Drama Queens
by John Mackenzie

I tend to run, not walk, when the operatic din of Gold's Advisor's begins to crescendo. At times, some of the well intentioned Gold Bull Advisors begin an intensely dramatic stampede towards the plateau, only to fall off the high bluff along with their communal herds.

Rather than play the "Game", they are "Played".

Let's be honest, brutally honest about what will break the paper markets control.

It is very simple, Richard Russell and many of the sharper advisors suggest it daily. I tell my community to purchase the metal prior to buying a single share of gold mining equities.

Buy the physical metal, the mining equities are paper promises and subject to the whim's of the market and it's interventionist policy. Purchase honest money!

Any rationale individual comprehends what Gold represents, there's little need for drama and drama queens, but intelligent and honest discourse about what potential threats abound.

If we in the Gold Community agree to agree that Gold represents a very real threat to the Fiat Currency Regime, then we should expect to be played by these masters of global banking.

At present, here are my observations:

- The broad market internals are now very similar to September / October of 1987.

- SOX either gets it in gear here and now or the Nasdaq follows through to the downside.

- XAU leading DOW is not bullish for broad markets... not at all, this is very rare.

- HUI projecting 118 (+/- 7.5) this summer, July at latest.

- HGX appears to be breaking down quickly, a bounce is due, but it should begin a steep decline again soon.

- FOMC has had it's foot to the floor on the Temporary Open Market Operations. They are clearly concerned and we will have to watch and see just how aggressive the Fed becomes.

- Gold, the metal will lag the miners on the downside, targets are from 272 to 376, with 368, 354, 342, 330, 308 my downside targets open, with 342 to 368 probable at this point, but it's early still, if we breach 376 this week, I would suggest a lowering of implied range is open.

- The Dollar can rally to an extreme high, 92/94 to 104 is now open.

- 2004/2005 will see Gold increase in price to levels I would rather not predict, but well north of the previous high. It will merely "begin" to approach its VALUE. I fully expect the exact opposite in the bottoming process... it will not be a process, but an EVENT.

We will need to be observant of the Dollar, Bonds and Asia. The federal Reserve is going to enter its own version of "panic" later this summer as they deflationary forces begin to take hold. They will do what they have always done: intervene, expand credit and monetize debt.

Once the Fed begins to hyper-inflate we can rest assured gold will be heading far higher. We will need to remain open to several potential outcomes for mining equities, bull and bear.

Regards,

John Mackenzie

John Mackenzie manages private capital - Email: m2jrmfl@bellsouth.net

Copyright © 2004-2005 John Mackenzie

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