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July 14, 2004

Abject Failure
by John Mackenzie

The Financial Markets are setting up to overwhelm the Policymakers in short order this August in this observer's opinion.

Dislocations have become most untenable over the course of 2004 as the latest round of excess liquidity, stuffed into the system ahead of the Federal Reserve's "Tightening Lite" campaign; certainly isn't yielding Foie Gras.

Instead, it appears to have brought about yet another unwelcome side-effect akin to having binged upon far too many Olestra based substitutes. Digestive problems, cramps and urgency are symptomatic of "the Invisible Hand's Substitute."

Contrary to Mr. Bernanke, Chairman Greenspan, and Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve... little remains ""Under very good control."

Under Chairman Greenspan's lofty misplaced rationale, the ebb and flow of current monetary policy appears to center around the following:

"GDP falling faster than Debt" or "Debt increasing faster than GDP"

Choose your poison carefully Chairman Greenspan as the ending is precisely the same.

Abstract statistical aggregates matter very little to "Larry lawnmower and Judy java." They recognize the simple truths within their financial sphere.

Things they need cost more.

Alan Greenspan is not totally oblivious to the realities of America's majority, although his loyalties clearly lay elsewhere. Pontificating hedonically fudged economic indicators is no substitute for the pocketbook reality indicator.

Health-care costs are rising 300% faster than wages. Explaining away the impact upon the "Real Economy's" participants is quickly becoming far less palatable to America's Working Class. I use that term very loosely to include all Americans not feeding at the top tier of first abuser privilege granted to those with immediate access to Chairman Greenspan's "Liquidity Trough."

The CONfidence game is losing its grip. One doesn't need a rapidly escalating College education, in dollar terms, to deduce the obvious.

Consumer CONfidence reporting has constantly shifted blame away from cause and towards the ill effect assumed by the American Public. The great irony here is that although "Gloom" may accurately describe the collective mood moving throughout the balance of 2004, the infertile egg is somehow held accountable for the chicken's promiscuous malaise.

Cutting Social Security benefits, sending tertiary jobs overseas, re-jiggering pension benefits while piling on Federal Debt and raiding already under funded future liabilities in order to remain solvent within the confines of the federal budget ceiling... yes, this adds up to a rather amazing miracle in Enron-esque accounting irregularities.

Debt is deflationary, regardless of how it is addressed. It would be best to begin to prepare now, the ending is out there and it may well be much closer than most realize.

John Mackenzie

John Mackenzie manages private capital - Email: m2jrmfl@bellsouth.net

Copyright © 2004-2005 John Mackenzie

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