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February 25, 2005

Elliott Wave Analysis on Silver and CDE
by Dan Stinson

Possible triangles in play.

Short Term Forecast - The last newsletter included a chart for the USD and Silver. The count for the USD played out as forecasted, but Silver did not move as low as expected before the reversal. We had one chart on the site that had it holding at trendline support, but now this trendline is even more important to remain as support in a triangle pattern. This newsletter is a follow up on Silver which will deal with a few charts that both project further upside.

We have also added analysis on CDE as it also appears as another triangle play. We projected the breakout of another triangle for CDE in Nov 2003, when it was at $3.50. Triangles are great patterns, but can sometimes extend further than expected and can also re-define the angle of the triangle with a wave that travels further than expected. For this reason, these charts are only a guide so that you can follow the action and watch for the potential breakout. The action could play out exactly as illustrated or it may need adjustments as we follow it through. The action could also negate the triangle count all together, but it allows us to focus on a likely outcome as illustrated below. Triangles can break to the upside or to the downside, so these charts should also assist to keep us on the right side of the play.

The first chart indicates that Silver is in a diagonal pattern, currently in wave V up. The second chart for Silver illustrates that a triangle is in play and currently in wave e down for wave (b). Once this wave completes, we should see a breakout to the upside in wave (c). Both of these charts are valid counts for the selected time slices. The first chart is our longer term chart, while the triangle count gives us added insight to the current action. We have identified many triangles in the indices and in gold and silver stocks, that all are very similar.

CDE appears to be completing wave d up, so we should see a pullback in wave e before further upside. A break below $3.27 would be bearish with a breakout through the bottom of the triangle. We do not expect this to occur, but this knowledge should keep us out of trouble, just in case.

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To learn more on the status of Gold, Silver, HUI and the USD, please visit the link below for registration details. The commentary and forecasts are updated daily, including intraday commentary and chart updates. Fibonacci pivot dates and cycle analysis are also utilized to forecast reversal dates. The indices covered include the NASDAQ, DOW, S&P 500, Nikkei, and DOW Transports. Commodity charts include the CRB Index, Copper, Crude, Sugar, Gold, Silver, HUI and the XAU (Gold and Silver index). Additional Elliott Wave charts cover the US Dollar (USD),(CAD), 10 Year Treasury Note Yield (TNX), IBM, Nortel, Microsoft, Ballard Power, Celestica, ATI Technologies, Biovail, Couer D Alene Mines (CDE), Bema Gold (BGO.TO), Durban Roodeport Deep (DROOY), Newmont Mining (NEM) and Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM).

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Dan Stinson
Elliott Wave Chart Site
ewavecharts.com

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