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December 12, 2002

Inflation Watch
by Chart of the Week

InvesTech Research

Recent months have seen this Future Inflation Gauge, tracked by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), swing into it's steepest rise in almost 20 years. Although this model dipped slightly in November (down to 114.5 from 115.0 in October), ECRI observes "Assuming the economy continues to grow, U.S. inflation is likely to remain in a cyclical uptrend." IF the Federal has not lost control... and IF this economic recovery starts appearing more normal in the early quarters of 2003... then investors might be surprised at how soon inflation becomes a problem this time around.

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