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October 21, 2006

SPX: Compressing Between Resistance & Support
by Arthur Eckart

On Wednesday, SPX opened sharply higher on the better than expected CPI report, although the core rate was in-line. SPX reached about 1,373 before pulling-back sharply. The strong open may have been a "blow-off top," and a bearish head & shoulders (on 15-minute chart) may have been created with the right shoulder at roughly 1,370 and the neckline at 1,357. Several weeks ago, SPX created a bullish inverse head & shoulders (on 15-minute chart) with the neckline at 1,338.

Over the past three days, SPX has traded entirely above the monthly upper Bollinger Band, currently 1,361. The 10-day MA, currently 1,362, has generally held for a month and the 20-day MA, currently 1,351, has generally held for three months. Both MAs have risen sharply. Consequently, SPX is being compressed between 1,370 and the rising 10-day MA. Given some short-term technical indicators are severely overbought, it's likely the compression will result in a move to the downside.

There are three possible scenerios. If the rally continues, there's a multi-year resistance level about 1,400. However, SPX will need to trade well above the monthly upper Bollinger Band, at levels not reached in 10-years, since the middle of the bubble boom. If there's a consolidation, SPX will fall below the 10-day MA, perhaps bounce initially off the 20-day MA, with further significant support levels at 1,338 and 1,326. Initial resistance is 1,370. SPX will then either rally, e.g. about 1,400, or fall, e.g. below 1,300. If there's a correction, support levels will turn into resistance levels through steep falls and volatile downtrends. First major support is 1,290.

Economic data and oil prices will largely determine SPX direction. Last week, the PPI core rate was reported much higher than expected, although the CPI core rate was in-line. Consequently, SPX may discount, over the next few weeks, higher PPI and CPI core rates in next month's report. Oil closed at 56.82 Friday. If oil falls and stabilizes around 50, that may be market bullish, or if oil rises and stabilizes around 60, that may be market bearish. I suspect, a consolidation will take place through the first week of November and then a correction will take place, since intermediate-term technical indicators are overbought. Nonetheless, I wouldn't rule out a rise to about 1,400 in early-November and a fall below 1,300 in late-November.

Arthur A. Eckart
PeakTrader

Arthur Albert Eckart is the founder and owner of PeakTrader. Arthur has worked for commercial banks, e.g. Wells Fargo, Banc One, and First Commerce Technologies, during the 1980s and 1990s. He has also worked for Janus Funds from 1999-00. Arthur Eckart has a BA & MA in Economics from the University of Colorado. He has worked on options portfolio optimization since 1998.

Mr Eckart has developed a comprehensive trading methodology using economics, portfolio optimization, and technical analysis to maximize return and minimize risk at the same time. This methodology has resulted in excellent returns with low risk over the past three years.

Copyright © 2006 Arthur Eckart

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