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December 12, 2006

Pre-Fed Quickie III - Miners Behaving
by Gary Tanashian

Think about it Gold bugz. Did you really want the precious metals complex to be on the move right in front of the Fed? Of course not. You wanted the Fed to be able to once again survey the landscape, see no signs that your favored asset class was strongly pointing a finger at their inflationary policies, hold rates at current levels, yammer on a bit about inflation concerns and then go back to where they came from thus allowing the complex to finish some upside business.

Here on the blog I have been charting the current consolidation in gold stocks reminding myself daily that this is healthy and that the charts say exactly that. Now anything can happen, but the miners have needed to "crash the 20" (day exponential moving average). Not just come close to it, but crash it (as the Dow, SPX and other major indices did recently) or at the least, grind down and touch it. Today we are just about there. A nice gap is filled and a strong support zone has nearly been reached.

Every card carrying bug knows that the Fed is an engine of inflation, but the Fed needs to gain the "street cred" to continue on with business as usual. A wounded animal is a dangerous animal and precious metals investors are aware of that. So if this wounded animal, trapped in a box and becoming increasingly desperate in light of the US Dollar's poor recent showing should decide to surprise today with a rate hike (not expected by anyone, but in an age when so much macro-financial data is swept off the balance sheets and out of the light, you never know if the figurative nuclear option is in play) you might say goodbye to the precious metals rally as well as any pretense of a legitimate bull market in stocks, not that the Dow-Gold ratio hasn't already debunked that idea.

In conclusion, as we approach 2:15 Eastern Time, this is just a reminder that the gold, silver and miner rally is not over until it's over and as of 11:15 Eastern, it ain't over. Good luck.

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

Disclaimer: biiwii.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.

Copyright © 2005-2008 Gary Tanashian

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