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January 27, 2007

Gold
by Gary Tanashian

I would like to remind the reader that Biiwii.com is not a "gold" site. I am not a member of the "gold community" and do not let personal beliefs override actual evidence of what really is. That said, I remain bullish on the barbarous relic from both long term and short term perspectives. In fact, it is the short term bullishness that is responsible for all the gold writing over the last few months. We have been watching for gold to decouple from the go-go commodity bull trade (again, see Hoye, see Saville -- two who in my opinion promote the minority, but accurate viewpoint) and so far, that is generally what is happening. This of course will signal economic contraction, and given the recent rise in long term interest rates, I think we can guess which sectors are going to get skewered first and hardest. Hint: I am not buying the Homies. ;-)

But the blueprint here on the blog is and has been marked up as a deflation scare. Not actual deflation. But to get a scare, you need people SCARED. I think we'll get a strong market correction and continued commodity decline in here at some point after the current bounce plays out. That should be gold's favored enviro in looking ahead to reflationary activity to come further down the road.

At least that's the script I am going by. Doesn't mean it's right. But so far, so good.

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

Disclaimer: biiwii.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.

Copyright © 2005-2008 Gary Tanashian

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