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January 30, 2007

XAU - Biggest Picture
by Gary Tanashian

Here is the biggest picture I can dial up of the XAU gold & silver index. Can somebody please tell me where the bearish is in this picture? And that is just the technicals. The fundamentals are IMO well in the precious metals' favor. Here on the monthly chart we see a massive cup w/ handle type object. The gold miners got a little over enthusiastic as they got caught up in the commodity bull trade blow off. But they managed to pierce the rock solid resistance above 150 before retreating. I always like to see the pole on the flag (handle) get above the resistance line. But did anyone really think it was just going to be clear sailing once 150 was breached? Here on Gary's trading desk we sold down to the core (taking profits... good) and suggested to readers that "they are you profits, why not take some of them?". In fact, that is where the bulk of my profit performance came from last year; the sales leading up to the May blow-off and then simply protecting the profits.

I suspect that some of the same former raging commodity bulls that are now stressing out about the relic and the miners forgot to lighten up at this obvious profit taking juncture. Others have recently been quietly accumulating with a big picture in mind, and here on the blog that picture has included the potential for a decline to the 115 +/- range, which would not damage the bullish big picture. I neither want nor think that is going to happen in the near term, but we just don't know for sure. Short term charts do remain bullish to these eyes but we cannot discount something happening to hammer us down to the 115 +/- area where there is strong support.

Regardless, the precious metals complex looks intact and readying for a big move. Whether that move is beginning now or not is open for debate, but the big pic looks good.

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

Disclaimer: biiwii.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.

Copyright © 2005-2009 Gary Tanashian

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