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Market Wrap

Week Ending 3/2/06
The Economy
The Commerce Department reported that gross domestic product last quarter
rose at a 2.2% annual rate. New home sales plunged, while orders for durable
goods slid the most since October.
Personal Income was up 1.0%, while personal spending was up 0.5%. If the figures
are correct, such is a good thing, as less was consumed then produced and earned,
which allows for savings.
The ISM Manufacturing index was up 3 points to 52.3. Prices paid were up 6
points to 59. Production and new orders both increased by almost 5 points.
Confidence among U.S. consumers fell last month from a two-year high as fuel
prices ate into personal income, and employment weakened.
The Reuters/University of Michigan's final index of sentiment fell to 91.3
from 96.9 in January. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in January.
New-home sales fell in January by the most in 13 years, putting to rest the
notion that the real estate bubble is anywhere near being over.
Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke stated that globalization could cause the
U.S. inflation rate to rise. Who would have figured?
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said that there "could
be a recession, but that one isn't likely." Who should have figured?
The Week That Was
Last week was the week that was, and many an investor cherishes the relative
calm of the markets being shut down for the weekend. It is time to regroup
and to go over one's investment strategy, now that the game has changed somewhat.
Nothing has changed fundamentally with any of the markets. What has changed
is the psychological perception of the markets: more specifically the psychological
view of risk versus reward: greed versus fear.
Prior to last week caution had been thrown to the wind. Everyone had their
hair down and their six guns blazing. The only fear was the fear of being left
out of the next get rich scheme. Speculation ran rampant. Greed ruled the roost.
Not quite so anymore, as a realty gut check occurred last week. Three desperados
rode into town: liquidity, the Yen carry trade, and China. And they came packing
for a fight.
Stock markets, currency markets, and commodity markets around the world got
whacked but good. No quarter was given - none was asked. Prisoners were not
taken. The first hombre to arrive in town was China.
China's central bank, unlike Mr. Greenspan, knows a bubble when it sees one,
and they are not afraid to take action to try to prevent the bubble from growing
larger, and hence more dangerous.
Last week the People's Bank of China raised the reserve requirements of their
banking industry, requiring the banks to hold 9.5% cash on reserve, as opposed
to the then prevailing rate of 9%. Such action dwarfs the raising of interest
rates, which is simply raising the cost of money.
Raising reserve requirements literally reduces the amount of money or credit
available in the system to be loaned out. Raising rates is a slap on the hand;
raising reserve requirements is a slap in the face with a 2 x 4. The markets
reacted accordingly.
First to go down from the blow was China's stock market, which fell almost
10% in one day. From there the contagion spread around the world like a game
of dominos gone bad.
Morgan Stanley's Capital International AC World Index, which covers developed
and emerging markets around the world, fell 4.7%. Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx
600 Index dropped 3%. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 5.3% for the
week, and Malaysia's Kuala Lumpur Composite Index fell 9.3%.
Altogether it is estimated that the global rout vaporized more than $1.5 trillion
of stock-market value in a matter of hours. The U.S. markets did not escape
unscathed. The Dow lost 4.2% for the week, and the S&P 500 was down 4.4%.
The Transports were whacked for a 7.3% loss. The Utilities fell 1.8%. The Transport's
action is most disturbing.
The NASDAQ gave back 6.2%, while the Broker/Dealers index dropped 7.6%. The
HUI Gold index was decimated for a 9.5% loss. Ouch!
The Trade
The second desperado to ride into town was the yen carry trade. Japan has
become infamous for its zero interest rate policy. Until quite recently, the
interest rate to borrow money in Japan was literally zero percent. Within the
past year they have gotten tough, raising rates first to .25% and now to .50%.
Give me a break.
What this zero interest rate policy did, and continues to do, is to advertise
that Japan is giving money away for free. Speculators circled like vultures.
The name of the game was to borrow yen on the short side of the trade, and
to then go long with a higher interest rate returns on the other side, the
preferred beast being U.S. Treasury Bonds; or to go long any of the commodities,
including gold or silver. The U.S. had a similar ploy - the Greenspan put.
Thus was born the Yen Carry Trade - a creature born of desire, suckled by
greed. It was the cheap yen that provided much of the liquidity that has fueled
many of the global asset bubbles. That and the oceans of paper fiat debt-money
the Fed has made the leading export of the United States.
Liquidity
Next to ride into town was liquidity, a very nasty hombre, as many of the
wannabe gunslingers found out. This dude is bad to the bone - knows not the
meaning of quarter.
By China raising reserve requirements - again, speculators started getting
nervous. The game was now getting harder to play. Rules were starting to appear.
Dodge was no longer an "open" town.
China is considered to be one of the driving locomotives of the global economy,
if it slows down, conventional wisdom has the world economy reacting by slowing
down. Profits would be harder to come by. The days of easy money might be drawing
to a close.
Doubt now entered the picture, where before denial ruled supreme. Weak hands
started selling, and suddenly everyone was rushing for the exit. Stocks fell
- hard.
This in turn caused losses to mount, those buying on margin learned why such
is a two edged sword. Margin calls started to go out - now you had to pay to
play. Liquidity now becomes tantamount.
Cash was needed and needed fast, as the margin clerks are not patient fellows,
being the enforcers of the house. Anything and everything of value goes up
for sale, as long as it raises cash - liquidity to pay the vig. Fear hung in
the air - you could smell that smell - the smell that hangs around.
The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly
During such panics the baby gets thrown out with the bath water. The best
investments are sold to pay for those gone bad: a pretty site it was not. Even
gold and silver, and the precious metals stocks were sold, as they had been
some of the best performers, and thus raised the most liquidity - as cash was
King for a day.
One market remain untouched by the contagion - above all the rest: the bond
market, and most specifically: the United States Treasury bond market. Fascinating
how the bond market, which is the debt market - is the safe haven during a
liquidity crisis that is born from debt. But that is another story for another
time.
I would point out, however, that there are many a carry trade that has yen
on one side, and bonds on the other. Caveat Emptor, as they may not retain
their virginity.
The first chart below belongs the main culprit in last week's debacle: China's
Shanghai 180 Stock Index. As you can see the market had quite a fall from grace.
China's Shanghai 180 Stock Index

Stocks
Stock markets around the world reacted by falling precipitously, some more
than others. The U.S. markets suffered the same fate. The S&P 500 fell
4.4% to 1387.17. The Dow Industrial Average declined 4.2% to 12,114.10. The
Nasdaq Composite Index fell 5.9%, closing at 2368.
Below is the S&P 500 chart, which shows several key markers. First, is
the fact that the market had not undergone an intermediate term correction
since last June - July of 2006, or over seven months ago. The market was due
for a downdraft and one finally occurred. If it were not China - it would have
been something else that triggered the long overdue correction.
Put to call ratios have risen and are still rising fast, and most likely will
for a while. That's what happens when fear takes over and panic reigns supreme.
Until the put to call ratio gets into overbought territory, and then rolls
over, there will not be any sustainable rally forthcoming.
The chart below shows a blow-off move that broke right out of its rising trend
channel, before correcting back down to just inside the channel. RSI shows
negative divergence, as well as a big move down. MACD has put in a negative
cross over.

The Nasdaq 100 shows several negative divergences. The VIX presaged the correction
by dropping below 10. This indicator will have to move back up before a sustainable
rally is possible.
What had recently been support is now overhead resistance, as the market closed
below the 1750 level. Look for breadth to run bearish - reaching oversold levels,
with volatility increasing as well.

Next is a chart comparing the Nasdaq and the Dow industrials that illustrates
the Dow outperforming the Nasdaq, which is an indication that investors are
becoming more risk conscious - seeking out the larger cap and well establish
Dow stocks and shunning the newer and riskier Nasdaq stocks.

A lot of players got caught on the wrong side of the trade. These individuals
will most likely sell into any rallies that first occur. Hence, there is now
significant overhead supply or resistance to be worked off.
It will take time to mend, and it will not happen overnight. A violent short
covering spike or mini-run may be in the offing before further downside action
occurs. Approximately $837 billion dollars of equity disappeared in just one
day. The broker/dealer chart shows the effect upon those whose business it
is to sell stocks.

As mentioned in the opening of this report, the yen carry trade was a major
contributing factor in the global rush towards liquidity. Anything and everything
that could be sold to raise cash was sold. Consequently, the yen experienced
a strong rally against all major currencies, as many (but not all - very important
distinction to remember) carry trades were unwound.
The chart below illustrates the rebound the yen had versus the euro, which
is one of the strongest performing currencies, while the yen is one of the
weakest.
Some of these carry trades have accumulated over years. In other words they
are not going to be unwound overnight. It will take time - lots of time.
Bonds have been rallying of late, however, there are huge carry trades with
the yen on one side and US bonds on the other. A further move up in the yen
will cause bond prices to go down. Yesterday they were a safe haven - next
month they may be notes of confiscation.

Up next is the chart of the yen on its own. The long-term bottom trend line
is easily distinguishable. It was breached and then price spiked back up and
above with the recent stock market mayhem and the unwinding of yen carry trades:
causing the yen to be bought.
Notice the levels of the stochastic indicator and the MACD indicator whenever
the yen made an intermediate to long-term bottom. Negative divergence is now
present, and we have not yet reached the previous stochastic levels that rallies
have started from in the past.

Below is the euro chart that shows the euro approaching overhead resistance.
RSI is far from the overbought level, and the MACD is starting a positive cross
over. The euro has been one of the best performing world currencies.
The chart pattern may be forming a cup with a handle - one of the most bullish
chart patterns there is.

The U.S. dollar is one of the weakest currencies in the world. As the next
chart indicates, the dollar has been in a long-term steady decline. Several
times the dollar has rallied up to its 200 day moving average, only to be repelled
back down.
Presently the dollar is oversold and is flashing positive divergences, which
may lend support to a short-term rally. The MACD indicator has also just made
a positive cross over.
Intermediate and long term we are very bearish on the dollar. It is an accident
waiting for a time and place to happen.

Bonds
U.S. Treasury bonds remain in a secular bear market, regardless of the recent
rally and flight to safety. Treasury bonds had their largest rally of the past
five months, as investors sought a safe harbor from the loss of over $1.5 trillion
dollars in global equity markets.
Two-year yields plunged 27 bps to 4.53%. The five-year Treasury fell 22 bps
to 4.44%, and the 10-year yield was down 17 bps to 4.50%. Long-bond yields
gave back 14 bps to 4.50%. The spread between the two-year and the ten-year
decreased 10 bps this week to close inverted by 3 bps.
So, the Fed lessened the slope of the yield curve, while still maintaining
an inverted rate of 3 bps. The Fed has been masterful thus far - the operative
words being: thus far. Time will tell if messing with the markets is compatible
with free markets and sound monetary policy.
Up first is the ten-year Treasury Note Yield chart. It shows rates falling
quite steadily since February.

Next is a chart comparing the 30-year bond yield versus the 90-day Treasury
bill yield. As unbelievable as it is - 90-day paper is yielding 4.97%, while
30-year paper is yielding 4.65%. Only in paper fiat land - where debt is money,
and money is debt.

Fed Foreign Holdings of Treasury Debt rose $6.8 billion to a record $1.83
trillion. Custodial holdings have increased almost 20%. International reserve
assets, excluding gold, expanded to another new record of over $5 trillion
dollars.
Next is a chart comparing the 30-year bond with the 5-year note. The chart
shows that overhead resistance is approaching quite fast. A break above the
resistance line would mean higher interest rates. This chart bears watching.

The chart below of the 30-year Treasury bond price shows the recent move up
in bond prices, as yields went down. It also shows the bottom trend line, which
is not far away. If that trend line gets broken to the downside - interest
rates will be trending higher.

Credit-Default Swaps
U.S. bonds were not the only debt market that fared well in last week's equity
debacle. European bonds rallied to their highest level in almost two years.
Not only did money from stocks flow into bonds, but money from emerging market
bonds also found its way into safer government bonds.
A sign of the times, or perhaps of things to come - was the sudden rise last
week in credit-default swap trading, which increased to a record 200 billion
euros ($263 billion). Investors were once again seeking a safe haven to ride
out the storm.
Three times the average weekly volume of credit-default trading transpired.
Credit-default swaps are supposed to protect bondholders against default, by
paying the buyer the face value of the bond, in exchange for the underlying
securities - if the business in question cannot honor its debt obligations.
They work somewhat like a bookie laying off risk.
Commodities
The latest buzz is that the commodity bull is over, sighing its last breath
of life. Someone forgot to tell China the story, as last week they imported
more copper then at any time since June 2005.
Cattle prices in Chicago surged to their highest level since 2003, and hog
futures also rose. Sugar also put in a good week's showing.
Most analysts tout the CRB Index as proof positive that the commodity bull
is dead and gone. The CRB is a weighted index, with oil and other commodities
receiving a heavy overall weighting, which skews the reliability of the index
to provide a true picture of the commodity sector in general.
Below is a chart of the CCI Index, which is an equally weighted index of commodities.
Each commodity has the same weighting as any other commodity. Thus, a much
clearer and truer picture of the commodity sector is revealed.
The chart proceeds from the bottom left hand corner to the upper right hand
corner - a bullish signature. Prices have just barely corrected down. There
is also a potential cup with a handle formation that may be in the progress
of forming, which is one of the strongest chart patterns existent. The chart
bears watching.

Energy
Crude oil lost .50 cents, or 0.82% (continuous contract), to close at $61.64
a barrel. The chart below shows crude breaking below its previously rising
channel.
To begin to consider a return to the bullish scenario, oil would have to rally
back inside its channel. Presently RSI is rising and a bullish MACD cross over
has occurred.
Although investors that are long oil would like to see it rise in price, it
is better for the economy and the average person if it does not increase, as
rising prices hit hard at the consumer's bottom line, via heating oil and gas
for transportation.

Natural Gas
The Energy Department reported that U.S. gas stockpiles fell 132 billion cubic
feet last week, which represents a 12% surplus over and above the 5 year average
supply level.
The chart below of the XNG Natural Gas Index shows the RSI readings consistent
with past bottom formations just prior to significant rallies up. Note that
RSI is presently headed down, and that the MACD indicator has just put in a
negative cross over.
However, charts look most bearish just before they turn bullish, and they
look most bullish just before they turn bearish. We are long term bullish on
both oil and gas.

Gold
Gold had a tough week, losing $21.00 to $644.10 (continuous contract) for
a loss of -3.16%. It was gold's lowest weekly close since January 19, 2007.
It is down $45.70 from its recent high of $689.80 or 6.6%.
Up first is the daily chart of gold, which shows it breaking below support
that had just gone from resistance to support, and now is resistance once again.
Volatility reigns supreme. We expect such to continue.
Note the RSI levels that have coincided with past lows from which significant
rallies began. RSI appears headed down towards such levels (30). Also, note
that the MACD indicator has just registered a negative cross over.
A good deal of overhead supply and resistance remains to be worked off. It
will not occur overnight. Patience is the password.

Next is the weekly chart of gold. It is more positive then the daily. RSI
is headed down, however, the MACD indicator has just made a positive cross
over.
The weekly closing price broke above resistance, to once again return below
it, and is approaching its bottom trend line support. All we can say is it's
a bull market until it isn't - and as of now it is.

Below is a chart comparing the performance of gold to silver. As the chart
indicates, silver has been handily outperforming gold. This is generally construed
as an overall negative for the precious metals. We say maybe - maybe not.
We have been invested in both and are quite satisfied with the returns offered.
Also, silver stocks have been on fire, and have appreciated appreciably to
say the least. For those who said silver would not perform well, they just
missed one heck of a rally by the silver stocks.
Some analysts refer to silver as the "bitchy" metal. We care not if it is
or isn't - we only care about being on the right side of the trade. It can
bitch all it wants to if it keeps going up in price.

Next we have the chart of the Hui/Gold ratio. This chart compares the performance
of the precious metal stocks in the Hui Index to the physical metal.
Generally, conventional consensus considers that the stronger the performance
is by the gold stocks versus the metal, the better it is for the overall performance
of the entire precious metals market sector.
The chart shows the ratio just breaking below its bottom support line, indicating
that the gold stocks are under performing the physical metal.

Next we have the daily chart of the Hui Index. All markers on the chart have
turned negative after last week's mauling. What had been resistance turned
support has now returned to be resistance once again.
RSI is headed down, and the MACD indicator is flashing a negative cross over.
Lastly, the price action has broken below the bottom support line, and just
below its 200 ma. Much work on the existing overhead supply needs to be done.
Once again - it is not going to happen overnight. The market is transferring "stuff" from
weak hands to strong hands. You place your money down and you take your chances.

Now we have the weekly chart of the Hui Index. It presently is sitting right
on its lower support line. RSI is headed down, however, the MACD has recently
flashed a positive cross over. The signals are therefore - mixed.

Next up is the monthly chart of the Hui Index. It shows a recent negative
MACD cross over and RSI is headed down and needs to turn back up.
A symmetrical triangle is once again compressing the price action. Volatility
seems to be the order of the day. The yellow zones are heavy-duty support zones.

The chart of the XAU Index pretty much shows the same thing as the Hui. The
price has just barely broken below the bottom of its symmetrical triangle.
Indicators are mostly negative. Strong overhead supply and resistance resides
at 150.

Next up is the GDX Index. It is the most negative of all the pm stock indexes.
All indicators are negative and require significant work to repair. We are
of the opinion that such will occur, but as we said it will not happen overnight.
The chart is self-explanatory and requires no further elucidation.

Silver
As did gold - silver also had a tough week, losing $1.03 to close out at $13.71
for a loss of 7%. Silver out performed on the upside, so it has more to give
back on the downside.
It was silver's lowest weekly close since February 2, 2007. Silver is down
9% from its high.
The daily chart shows negative divergence with both RSI and MACD. An upper
trend line break has occurred as well. There is much work to be done.

The weekly chart also has negative divergences, however, its price action
is closer to the top of its formation than to the bottom.
The divergences suggest that more downside action will most likely occur prior
to a sustainable rally.

The monthly chart of silver shows overbought readings with the histograms
declining back towards zero.
However, the overall chart formation looks like a very large cup and handle
formation, which if it is - will be very powerful when it launches from the "rim".
The longer a cup and handle formation takes to form - the more powerful it
is when it breaks to the upside. This one's been forming for 25 years. Stock
up on popcorn?

Eldorado Gold
Eldorado Gold has a chart that says: we don't want to buy any. We have owned
it several times and just recently sold it for a good profit. Note the negative
divergences that are playing out in the price action.
Positive and negative divergences can be powerful markers of future price
action. As with any indicator they can give false signals and fail, however,
when they do pan out - they literally do pan out.
The chart illustrates some indicators to be weary of, and to stay away from
a stock that is sporting them.

Harmony Gold
Harmony Gold has been very good to us. We have been in and out many times
- going back to the low single numbers. Yet we believe the best is yet to come.
We own a fair amount of the stock.
As with just about any of the precious metal stocks, harmony is under pressure.
We plan on accumulating more on any lows that hold right above $12.83. An intra-day
spike down with a reversal is just what the doctor has ordered; the question
is: will the fates comply.

I Am Gold
We presently own the stock, and its price action has piqued our interest.
There are a couple of positive divergences occurring, and RSI is approaching
the level from which past rallies have started. No guarantees - but it does
look interesting, at least to us. But we are easily entertained.

Rydex Precious Metals
We tentatively plan on taking a fairly large position in this fund; however,
the time has not yet come. Several negative divergences are occurring, and
it has just ever so slightly breached its bottom trend line to the downside.
We are waiting for the divergences to correct and the price action to break
out and upward. If we do take a position, it will be in accumulated in four
(4) incremental and separate buys. Scaling into positions makes up for timing
mistakes by cost averaging the position out.
All of our positions are accumulated very incrementally. We try to buy into
weakness and sell into strength. We prefer intermediate term plays, but we
will take whatever the market offers.
We like Rydex because they have several other "unique" funds that we like
trading, such as the reverse stock, bond, and dollar funds.
In the not too distant future we are of the opinion that bonds are going to
be a big big play to the downside.

Gold Fields
Gold Fields like harmony has been good to us. We have owned it several times.
We presently own a good chunk of it, and may accumulate more on weakness.
As the chart shows, there is serious and significant support right around
the $15 dollar level. This support goes back 5 years and took 5 long-term rallies
until resistance turned to support.
We look for good things from GFI.

Summary
As always, interest rates are key. As go interest rates, so goes the bond
market and the dollar market. As goes the bond market, so goes the mortgage
market.
More money, or should we say credit and debt, are tied up in the housing market
then in any other market. If the housing market goes, the economy will go with
it. Interest rates are thus key.
The question on everyone's mind is: what are the world's stock markets going
to do, and specifically what is the U.S. market going to do. We wish we knew.
All we can do is to offer the most likely scenarios and try to plan accordingly.
Forewarned is forearmed. Expect the unexpected and be prepared.
The recent action by China's central bank, and the reaction of its and other
global stock markets, suggest similar future action by the central bank, as
it does want to try to control the asset boom presently going on.
The $64 dollar question is: can they do it? No they can't. Period. Paper fiat
is paper fiat, whatever the name is stamped on it. As such it is junk - junk
that eventually destroys itself by debasement and loss of purchasing power:
it is what paper fiat currencies do: self-destruct.
So we do expect the stock markets to go down again, and rather significantly
as well. When - we have no idea. We don't believe it will be next week, although
it is possible. It is more likely to see a short-term rally and a move down
later this spring, but there are many other scenarios as well. The markets
can remain irrational much longer then we can stay solvent.
Stuff that when you drop it on your foot you go "ouch" are the preferred investments
at this juncture, especially gold, silver, and energy. One lesson of this past
week was that when the overall stock market takes a hit, it's like the fox
raiding the hen house - the fox usually gets ALL the chickens, which means
that precious metal stocks are NOT immune to significant downdrafts - even
if they have been stellar performers.
Like any piece of paper - gold and silver stocks are subject to general market
risk. And as we saw last week - a sub-plot to general market risk is LIQUIDITY.
DO NOT under estimate the POWER of liquidity. Currency flows
just like water flows. Currency can have droughts and floods just like water
flows: they're called money flows; and they are huge volumes of money and credit
sloshing around the world searching for yield. If you get in the way - it will
wash aside like a sprig from a tree.
Physical gold and silver are somewhat safer, although when liquidity is needed
anything and everything is sold to raise cash. Caveat Emptor.
So what's a good investor to do? Be patient. Keep it simple. Focus on the
preservation of capital - the return of your money, not the return on your
money. Cash can't hurt right now. Booking profits cannot hurt right now.
We plan on buying more pm stocks on weakness that holds support, but that
could change any day. We also plan on taking profits whenever they are offered.
We remain cautious but ever vigilant for what the market offers.
The last several weeks we have mentioned sub prime loans that could spread
into the rest of the markets. New Century Financial Corp. disclosed that the
SEC is pursuing a criminal probe into the company's improper lending policies
regarding mortgages issued to borrowers that had no qualifications to support
paying off a mortgage. This is NOT an isolated case.
There still remains a LOT of carry trades to be unwound - and unwound they
will be. Before all is said and done (2010?) the words derivatives and carry
trade will be household words. We wish it was not so, but are afraid it is.
Hopefully we will be wrong - and thankful for it.
It will not be pretty. The only thing that can possibly stop it is Honest
Money - gold and silver coin as mandated by the Constitution. We must return
to the Constitution and the ideals it espouses: freedom, liberty, and justice
FOR ALL.
We The People ordain the government. The government only exists by our approval.
We our sovereign - the government is merely our representative body politic.
All powers vested in Congress were and are granted by We The People. We The
People come first - the Constitution comes second, government last. This seems
to be forgotten by many. It is time to wake up and sound the clarion call for
a new and brighter future that we will feel safe leaving our children behind
to grow up in; and to raise families of their own. Do not leave behind a legacy
of debt. Vote for Honest Money - of gold and silver coin. Vote for Congressman
Ron Paul for President.
Invitation
Stop by our website and check out the complete market wrap, which covers most
major markets. There is also a lot of information on gold and silver, not only
from an investment point of view, but also from its position as being the mandated
monetary system of our Constitution - Silver and Gold Coins as in Honest Weights
and Measures.
There is also a live bulletin board where you can discuss the markets from
people around the world and many other resources too numerous to list. Drop
by and check it out. Good luck. Good trading. Good health. And that's a wrap.

Come visit our new website: Honest
Money Gold & Silver Report
And read the Open
Letter to Congress

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