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May 30, 2007

Several Markets - ONE Bearish Outlook (with caveat)
by Gary Tanashian

In light of fundamental changes in the bond market where the yield curve (TNX-IRX ratio) has finally turned up after three years locked in a down trend, one might watch for changes in asset markets that have been on auto-pilot during that same stretch. We are of course talking about the stock market, commodities and even 'counter cyclical' gold which got caught up in the hysteria. If you believe, as I do that a rising yield curve signals that the bond market has done its job and withdrawn liquidity from the real economy (leaving the Yen Carry Trade, which is one sharp Yen rally away from unwinding - as the primary remaining liquidity spigot for the financial economy) then you might also agree that now is a time to remain cautious, as has been advised here on the blog and also here on the website.

Risk management strategies should now be implemented. Greed should be under control. I favor the gold miners because gold is 'normally' counter cyclical and due to a bearish view of cyclical commodities which represent a substantial portion of the miners' cost inputs. In this regard there is reassurance that gold does not look as bearish as silver and the gold miners have not participated in the global stock market bubble currently taking place. There is downside, but it could well be limited as a global asset correction takes shape and yet more fundamental dominoes fall in gold's favor. But as is usually the case, these events seem to happen in slow motion, thus obscuring the day to day view. Patience, a grounded game plan and of course charts are necessary going forward. I am mentally prepared for HUI 250, but hold core positions - guarded by USD (RYSBX, SHY & Cash) & Yen (FXY) hedges - into whatever is upcoming in the near term.

With macro fundamentals shifting into gold & its miners' favor, that seems like the prudent stance at this point because when they finally do turn 'n burn, there will be a lot of momo's trying to play catch up. Therefore, the caveat is that while gold and gold miners may have downside risk in the near term, the fundamental backdrop is coming around to a condition that normally favors this asset class.

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

Disclaimer: biiwii.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.

Copyright © 2005-2008 Gary Tanashian

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