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July 20, 2007

More Selling pressure Ahead Next Week
by Mike Paulenoff

With just an hour remaining in the session on Friday, I told subscribers to our Web site I was doubtful about the correction having ended, as I noticed the following:

Financial powerhouse Goldman Sachs (GS) remained down about 2.5% for the session, and more importantly, below its 200 DMA (208.31)...

Google (GOOG ) was still down 5% for the session, having bounced off of its 50 DMA (510.81) in the morning.

Spot gold was up about $18 since last Friday's close-- and was now trading 90% up the range for this week.

The iShares Lehman Brothers 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) were holding in the upper 80% of the today's breakout advance.

The dollar was down a lot against the yen, and just off its (extrapolated) 12 year lows vs. the euro.

As it turned out, the early afternoon rally indeed had no legs. Instead of a rip-roaring, upside reversal finish, the major equity market ETF's, GS, et al, slipped a bit back towards the lower end of today's range, and the faded out completely, leaving me with the distinct sense that there is more selling pressure ahead early next week.

And not just in the U.S. markets. The iShares Canada ETF (EWC) on Friday registered a reversal off of new all-time highs. My near- and intermediate-term work is warning me that Friday's high, and downside reversal, could very well signal the end of the most recent upleg from the June 27 low at 28.81, but also the larger upleg off of the January low at 23.53.

Although the EWC exhibits a very powerful uptrend, the pattern, oscillator position and technical evidence that the Canadian dollar has peak against the U.S. dollar all strong suggest that we should expect a meaningful correction in the EWC bull market.

My first target is in the vicinity of 30.00.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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Copyright © 2007-2008 Mike Paulenoff

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