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August 06, 2007 Retest |
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8/6/2007 7:01:47 AM Markets retested the lows on Friday - here's what it means. Welcome to the Daily Stock Barometer. If you're interested in following our signals and learning more about our system, then I invite you to click here and subscribe to the daily service - since the market can turn on a dime and so too can our interpretation as the market gives its daily clues to the future. Or sign up for our free weekly newsletter, where we provide up to date articles from our various trading services. Trade stocks? Click here to get our EXPLOSIVE STOCK ALERT stock recommendations and updates for only $9.95/month.
Stock Barometer Analysis The Barometer remains in Sell Mode. The Stock Barometer is my proprietary market timing system. The direction or slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook on the market's direction. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are in Sell Mode. A Buy or Sell Signal is triggered when the indicator clearly changes direction. All the information contained in this email is considered in making our calls. Stock Barometer Cycle Time Today is day 14 in our Down Cycle. The Stock Barometer signals follow 5, 8, 13, 21 and sometimes 34 day Fibonacci cycles that balance with 'normal' market cycles. Knowing where you are in the current market cycle is important in deciding how long you expect to maintain a position. Potential Cycle Reversal Dates 2007 Potential Reversal Dates: 1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17, 3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29. We publish these dates up to 2 months in advance. The market will likely set up a b-wave bounce and retest the lows once again in late August. My Additional timing work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the above potential reversal dates. These are not to be confused with the barometer signals or cycle times. However, due to their past accuracy I post the dates here. 2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30, 2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11, 11/28. 2005 Potential reversal dates based on 'other' cycle work were 12/27, 1/25, 2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12, 8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16. The following work is based on my spread/momentum indicators for the QQQQ, SPY, XAU, GLD and TLT. They are tuned to deliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use them only in determining our overall outlook for the market and for pinpointing market reversals. I provide the spread indicator charts at least weekly and when they deliver reversal signals. The level, direction, and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'above zero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'. QQQQ Spread Indicator (NASDAQ:QQQQ) The QQQQ Spread Indicator remains in Sell Mode, below zero.
The QQQQ and SPY Spread Indicators will yield their own buy and sell signals and may be in Buy and Sell Mode that is different from the Stock Barometer. Gold Spread Indicator (AMEX:GLD) The Gold Spread Indicator remains in Sell mode, below zero.
The dollar Spread Indicator moved into Sell Mode, above zero.
I monitor Gold in the form of GLD and the XAU as well as the US Dollar Index as a general guide to the overall health of the US Economy and the markets, as well as to assist us in the entry of positions in our Gold Stock Service. Bonds Spread Indicator (AMEX:TLT) The Bond Spread Indicator remains in Sell Mode, above zero.
I include bonds in our studies and use Lehman's 20 year ETF, as the direction of bonds can have an impact on the stock market. Normally, as bonds go down, stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down. OIL Spread Indicator (AMEX:USO) *NEW* The OIL Spread Indicator moved into Sell Mode, above zero.
We look at the price of oil as its level and direction can have an impact on the stock market, which we'll examine over the coming months and years. Supporting Secondary Indicator
I have over 100 technical indicators, some that are widely followed and some that are proprietary. These indicators break down the market internals, sentiment and money flow and give us unique insight into the market. I feature at least one here each day in support of our current outlook. Summary of Daily Outlook We remain in Sell Mode as the market retested the lows and broke them on some indices. Futures are up big this morning, but traders know to look past am futures, especially on a Monday due to the light volume. Look for any opening gap to get filled by the 10:20 pivot. With our indicators so oversold, I do expect a bounce at some point - as the market is stretched to an extreme. We now have an upper end of resistance at last Thursday's high (which got many bullish). The key to retests is volume. A high volume break of a previous swing low suggests that the market will continue lower. If you look at a chart of the SPY - you have a low volume break of the low, which suggests a bounce. Liken it to fewer people coming in your store and dropping prices. This will eventually be perceived as a bargain and buying should improve in the supply and demand ratio. If you have any questions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com. Regards,
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Jay DeVincentis Trading involves high risk. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Stockbarometer.com and all individuals affiliated with Stockbarometer.com assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. Patrice V. Johnson's - J.E.D.I. Trader Explosive Stock Trader Stock Options Speculator Angelo Campione's Advantage Credit Spreads Lynn T's 1-2-3 PLUS Alert ETF Advisor Fundamental Trader Alert Daily Stock Barometer QQQQ Trader and Rydex Trader: issued by 10pm in the evening when the Barometer system issues a Buy or Sell Signal. Stock Barometer Premier Membership Click Here to visit our subscribe page learn more about any of our services. Earn Money referring us to your friends, family and other traders. Click here for details: http://www.stockbarometer.com/affiliate.aspx To ensure delivery and prevent this e-mail from being delivered to your bulk mail folder, please add our 'From' e-mail address, info@stockbarometer.com, to your address book. Important Disclosure Futures, Options, Mutual Fund, ETF and Equity trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in these markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy/sell Futures, Options, Mutual Funds or Equities. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this Web site. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Performance results are hypothetical. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as a lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Investment Research Group and all individuals affiliated with Investment Research Group assume no responsibilities for your trading and investment results. Investment Research Group (IRG), as a publisher of a financial newsletter of general and regular circulation, cannot tender individual investment advice. Only a registered broker or investment adviser may advise you individually on the suitability and performance of your portfolio or specific investments. In making any investment decision, you will rely solely on your own review and examination of the fact and records relating to such investments. Past performance of our recommendations is not an indication of future performance. The publisher shall have no liability of whatever nature in respect of any claims, damages, loss, or expense arising out of or in connection with the reliance by you on the contents of our Web site, any promotion, published material, alert, or update. For a complete understanding of the risks associated with trading, see our Risk Disclosure. Copyright © 2004-2008 Investment Research
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