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October 03, 2007

Preparing for a Peak
by Mike Paulenoff

Today's action in the Nasdaq neither confirmed a near-term peak nor confirmed that the action off of Monday's new multi-year high represents a bullish congestion pattern ahead of another upleg.

But rest assured that this high-level "churn" is indicative of an approaching peak. Perhaps Friday's Employment Report will trigger a resolution one direction or another to the current stand-off. Or, perhaps in both directions: a spike to new highs, followed by a wicked downside reversal.

All I can say at this point is that a very meaningful peak is approaching, and it could very well come in the aftermath of a "news spike" to new highs, which attracts all sorts of sellers -- most of whom are all too aware what month of the year it is.

The Dow, as well, is poised for a peak, albeit not before one more potential thrust. Let's notice that on Monday, the DJIA surged to a new all-time high of about 0.006%, and since has reversed back below the prior high (July) at 14,021.

While there is a possibility that we are witnessing a Bull Trap (a marginal new high followed by a precipitous downside reversal), the weakness so far from 14,115 into today's low at 13,948 has yet to inflict any serious damage to the otherwise powerful, and intact, upleg off of the August 16 low at 12,518.

Only a sustained break below 13,850 will begin to compromise the current upleg and will be my preliminary confirmation of the Bull Trap. In the meantime, let's expect one more thrust towards the top of the 15-month channel -- into the 14,300/350 area -- but at the same time be prepared for failure at just about any moment.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mikes ETF Trading Diary today.

Copyright © 2007-2008 Mike Paulenoff

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