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November 13, 2007

Shorting Overbought Commodities
by Mike Paulenoff

The big picture of the DUG (the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) shows Monday morning's huge upside opening gap and follow-through that amounts to about a 6% climb from Friday's close.

More importantly, though, is the upside assault on the Sept-Nov resistance plateau at 44.00-44.50, which when hurdled should trigger additional follow-through to test the Feb-Nov resistance line that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 49.00.

Gold, like oil, looks lower. Spot gold continued down on Monday in what looks like a significant decline off a blow-off type peak. Here is what I wrote for subscribers on Friday morning:

The three salient features of the big picture view of spot gold are: 1) that the current vertical advance measures $205, which approximates the distance of the widest traverse of the proceeding 15-month coil pattern -- and usually identifies the optimal follow-through target zone -- in this case in the $830/40 area; and 2) that the relatively reliable 15-week cycle (low to low, see blue arrows) points to a next cycle "low" around December 3rd, which is about 3 1/2 weeks from now and represents 25% of the cycle length -- just about the position in a "right translated" cycle to expect a period of weakness into a cycle low.

Finally, 3) my daily RSI is not confirming Thursday's new high in spot gold, which is a third cause for some concern that a correction is approaching quickly.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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Copyright © 2007-2008 Mike Paulenoff

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