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December 14, 2007

Run Away!
by Gary Tanashian

If pre-market is any indication (and very often it isn't), we could have another one of those moments; you know, the ones where gold bugs' resolve is tested and the ones who don't know why they do what they do (momo's and various other inflation-traders) are broken and take their losses yet again. Tax loss season only adds to their incentive.

Santa is in full swing and remains on schedule as the nation that knows denial is not just a river in Egypt tells itself a happy story (the abbreviated version of Goldilocks) for the holidays. The US Dollar is finally getting its counter-trend rally with resistance noted over head. The broad stock market is temporarily in a USD positive correlation stance, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley raised their estimates for economic growth in the wake of the "consume at ALL costs" American consumer's irrepressible (one might say chronic) penchant for doing what he does best; use unproductive means to get to seemingly satisfying ends. So, happily, consumer nation prepares for the holidays in good cheer. Wall Street, in the heart of bonus season, cheers right along.

Back to gold, the counter-cyclical asset. While we suspend disbelief for a while and the USD catches a bid, gold bugs get clobbered. This is not a conspiracy. This was an over-bought market that was plunged into head first by legions of people who do not understand anything about the big picture but rather are routinely subject to the emotions and knee jerks of the short term. They are being bled out and this is healthy. Goldman projects 600 gold next year and previously OVER bullish sentiment is getting unwound. Astute gold market watchers are feeling more bullish (they were uneasy with the frothy momo to the 840's, I will guarantee you) with these developments. The big picture is bullish for gold and the short term noise is counter trend stuff. I am still leaving open the daily symmetrical triangle and its near term target of 920 (in conjunction with the weekly symmetrical triangle projecting to the same area) but if you have eyes, you see gold is under siege at the hands of the Santa-Goldilocks partnership.

If you are emotion driven, you see the bunny ripping off men's heads. If you are using logic... well, you know.

Gary Tanashian
http://www.biiwii.com/

Disclaimer: biiwii.com does not recommend that any trading or investment positions be taken based on views expressed on this site. If you speculate or invest it is suggested that you consult a financial advisor qualified in your area of interest.

Copyright © 2005-2008 Gary Tanashian

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