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April 15, 2008

Gold Highs, Dollar Lows Not for Long
by Mike Paulenoff

There is a fascinating technical situation in the euro-$ vs. the pattern exhibited by spot gold prices. All of the action in the euro from March 17 has carved out a "wedge" type of formation, with flag tops and rising lows, which should resolve itself in one pop to the upside into new high territory above 1.5915 prior to a powerful and nasty downside reversal.

Having said that, however, I have to wonder what impact the G-7 communique is having on the "speculators" who now are on the radar screens of the central bankers. Do they have the nerve to take the dollar down (euro up) and risking challenging the Fed, ECB, BOE and BOJ? My sense is that if they do, then new dollar lows/euro highs will not last for long and will not have a lasting impact on gold prices, which appear to me to "need" another downleg to complete a larger correction off of their March 17 high at $1,033.

On the subject of currencies, I have received a number of emails about participating in an ETF that tracks the U.S. Dollar, either up or down.

What I have found is a group of ETF's recently established via Deutsche Bank called PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund, under the symbol UUP.

There is also a PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish Fund, under the symbol UDN.

The UUP started trading in February '07 around $25, and recently hit a low of $22, for about a 12% dollar depreciation vs. a basket of currencies during the past 12-14 months in comparison to the plight of the dollar vs. the euro on the spot market, which depreciated about 23% since Feb. '07.

The daily volume of the UUP can be somewhat thin at times (100,000 shares or less) but for the most part has increased liquidity steadily during the past 6 months and sees 200,000 to 400,000 shares per day regularly.

For anyone who wants more information, including the prospectus, visit their Web site at http://www.dbfunds.db.com/USdollar/index.aspx.

Mike Paulenoff
www.mptrader.com

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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Copyright © 2007-2009 Mike Paulenoff

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