• 287 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 287 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 289 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 689 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 699 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 699 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 700 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 702 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 706 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 706 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 707 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 709 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 713 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 714 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 714 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 716 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

How The Ultra-Wealthy Are Using Art To Dodge Taxes

More freeports open around the…

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Market Sentiment At Its Lowest In 10 Months

Stocks sold off last week…

Prieur du Plessis

Prieur du Plessis

With 25 years' experience in investment research and portfolio management, Dr Prieur du Plessis is one of the most experienced and well-known investment professionals in…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

I Have Just Hedged My Equities By Going Long Volatility

I have often in the past referred to the CBOE Volatility (VIX) Index, also known as Wall Street's "fear index". This is a measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options - a high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options.

The VIX Index is an excellent contrary indicator, moving in the opposite direction to stocks, and worth keeping an eye on. The Index peaked at 80.9 in November 2008 and has since declined to a low of 15.6 beginning March before edging up a bit to 16.4. To add some longer-term perspective, the relatively calm four-year period prior to the start of the credit crisis was characterized by a range between 10 and 20.

The graph below shows the neat historical inverse relationship between the S&P 500 Index (black line) and the VIX (red).

S&P500 versus VIX
Source: StockCharts.com

I am of the opinion that the nascent cyclical bull market is looking tired, on top of the fact that stocks over over-loved, overbought and overvalued. But let's also get a second opinion on the matter and who better than from David Fuller (Fullermoney) from across the pond. He said: "Over the last fortnight I have repeatedly mentioned that the excellent stock market rally over the previous nine to ten weeks was becoming increasingly overextended relative to the mean for numerous trends. Last Friday and also this Monday, we saw a number of downward dynamics for many important stock market indices, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Switzerland SMI Index and the Australia AS&P ASX200 Index. Where they occurred, they interrupted short-term upward trends, indicating that a reaction and consolidation had commenced. I have also mentioned that this could turn into a mean reversion correction for some stock markets.

"I do not think we are witnessing the onset of new or renewed bear markets. However, there have been some blows to investor confidence recently - mainly deteriorating sovereign debt problems, China's monetary tightening to check property speculation, and the SEC's case against Goldman Sachs. These events have checked upward momentum for most stock markets at a time when they were technically overstretched in the short term. Lastly, debt concerns prevented southern European stock markets from participating in the February to mid-April uptrend extension rallies seen elsewhere and laggards such as Greece, Portugal and Spain are trading below their moving averages."

Back to the VIX: One way of hedging an equity portfolio is to bet on increased volatility that is bound to happen with any stock market correction. One can do this by buying either the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-term Futures ETN (VXX) or iPath S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (VXZ). VXX invests in VIX futures contracts ending within the next two months, whereas VXZ is made up of VIX futures contracts running for four to seven months. A word of warning, though: these products generally represent an excellent way of hedging against stock market declines, but may not always fully track the VIX as a result of investing in futures that are also affected by other risk factors.

The graph below shows the VIX Index (red line) together with both VXX (green) and VXZ (blue).

VIX
Source: StockCharts.com

Did you enjoy this post? If so, click here to subscribe to updates to Investment Postcards from Cape Town by e-mail.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment