Status: Sovereign Risks and Trailing Asset Category Relative Returns

By: Richard Shaw | Mon, Jul 11, 2011
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Greece is still unresolved. Europe is apparently more open to partial default. Risk of contagion is rising. Italy is in the short-seller cross hairs as a result.

US credit standing is perilously close to an outlook downgrade due to lack of progress. Public debt will certainly be paid, but continuity of payments for all government functions and entitlements is not as certain. Failure to reach agreement on an intermediate-term solution has high risk of raising interest rated demanded by Treasury buyers, further deepening budget problem. Some in Congress floating idea of redefining inflation to lower Social Security payments without seeming to do so. That's bad new all around, including for inflation protected Treasury buyers. Unemployment is going in the wrong direction with adverse implications for GDP US corporate profits are high.

Status: Sovereign Risks and Trailing Asset Category Relative Returns

 


 

Richard Shaw

Author: Richard Shaw

Richard Shaw
QVM Group LLC

Richard Shaw

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