• 288 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 288 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 290 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 690 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 695 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 697 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 700 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 700 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 701 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 703 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 703 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 707 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 707 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 708 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 710 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 711 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 714 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 715 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 715 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 717 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

What's Behind The Global EV Sales Slowdown?

An economic slowdown in many…

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

Is The Bull Market On Its Last Legs?

This aging bull market may…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

readtheticker

readtheticker

readtheticker

We are financial market enthusiasts using methods expressed by the Gann, Hurst and Wyckoff with a few of our own proprietary tools. Readtheticker.com provides online…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

2012 The Year of the Mighty US Dollar

Blog readers are very knowledgeable about the powerful Hurst cycle within the US dollar. This blog has been blowing the US dollar bull trumpet for a good six months. The last two months of 2011 has seen short covering of the US dollar on the back of a weak euro. However there a many out there that do not believe the US dollar will gain strength. Please consider this.

USA QE3 not a done deal in early 2012, consider

  • It is an election year, and Obama not a sure thing. Bernanke will not act without support from the media, congress and Wall Street.
  • US inflation around 2%, more QE could send oil up 50% to 100%
  • SP500 is some what up, and Ben Bernanke will only act as a savior when congress allows it to be so.
  • Some economic numbers a bullish. This does not mean ERCI recession call is a false signal, it just means in may be a recession by a thousand cuts.

Europe mess just wont stop

  • Greece and other PIGS nations risk of leaving the euro (see blog posts with Flex Zulauf for more)
  • $2.5 trillion Euros of Europe debt to roll over by June 2012. Who is gonna buy that junk.
  • European political leadership is by massive committee (19 parliaments), that's fun.
  • The EURUSD is heading sub 1.20 early on in 2012.
  • The ECB can not (yet) print money a freely as the USA (but they are trying to get there)

Asia, not in the news yet, but could be

  • China slow down has legs
  • Japan massive public debt could crash if interest rates rise from 0% to 1.5%

So at the moment we have the pendulum swing away from US dollar bears to the bulls. And no one in the US government wants sound money, even though Timothy Geithner said they have a strong dollar policy.

Quote..2011-04-26

US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner vowed Tuesday that the United States would never follow a strategy to weaken the US dollar..."Our policy has been and will always be, as long as I will be in office, that a strong dollar is in the interest of the country," Geithner said at a New York conference organized by the Council of Foreign Relations.

"We will never embrace a strategy to weaken the dollar."

A strong US dollar does not support a RISK ON trade. Hence commodities and stocks will not do well in 2012. Sure there will be great swings, and this will be great for trading, but new highs will be unlikely. Much loved trades like gold (GLD) and the Aussie dollar (FXA) will trade sideways to down, so do not be too keen to jump in, as Elvis has left the building.

Yahoo TechTicker 20111231

Latest USD (UUP Etf) Cycle chart

Latest USD (UUP Etf) Cycle chart
Larger Image

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment