Tis the Season to Look At Gold and Oil Prices!

By: Chris Vermeulen | Thu, Jun 13, 2013
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The two most popular investments a few years ago have been dormant and out of the spot light. But from looking at the price of both gold and oil charts their time to shine may be closer than one may thing.

Seasonal charts allow us to look at what the average price for an investment does during a specific time of the year. The gold and oil seasonal charts below clearly show that we are entering a time which price tends to drift higher.

While these chart help with the overall bias of the market keep in mind they are not great at timing moves and should always be coupled with the daily and weekly underlying commodity charts.

Now, let's take a quick look at what the god father of technical/market analysis shows in terms of market cycles and where I feel we are trading... As I mentioned last week, a picture says a thousand words so why write when I can show it visually J


John Murphy's Business Cycle:

John Murphy's Business Cycle:


Mature Stock Market:

$SPX S&P 500 Large Cap Index INDX


Commodity Index Looks Bullish and Should Rise:

GCC GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index Fund NYSE


Gold & Silver Seasonality, Price Charts w/ Analysis:

Gold Seasonal 30 Years

Precious Metals like gold and silver are nearing a bounce and possible major rally in the second half of this year.

$GOLD Gold -  Spot Price (EOD) CME

$SILVER Silver - Spot Price (EOD) CME


Crude Oil Seasonality, Price Chart w/ Analysis:

Crude Oil Seasonal 30 Years

Crude oil has been a tough one to trade in the last year. The recent 15 candles have formed a bullish pattern and with the next few months on the seasonal chart favoring higher prices it has been leaning towards the bullish side.

$WTIC Light Crude Oil - Spot Price (EOD) CME


Commodity, Gold & Oil Cycle and Seasonality Conclusion:

In short, I feel the equities market is nearing a significant top in the next couple weeks. If this is the case money will soon start flowing into commodities in general as more of the safe haven play. To support this outlook I am also factoring in a falling US dollar. Based on the weekly dollar index chart it looks as though a sharp drop in value is beginning. This will naturally lift the price of commodities especially gold and silver.

It is very important to remember that once a full blown bear market is in place stocks and commodities including gold and silver will fall together. I feel we are beginning to enter a time with precious metals will climb but it may not be as much as you think before selling takes control again.

Final thought, this could be VERY bullish for the Canadian Stock Market (Toronto Stock Exchange) as it is a commodity rich index. While the US may have a pullback or crash Canadian stocks may hold up better in terms of percentage points.

 


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Chris Vermeulen

Author: Chris Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen
President of AlgoTrades Systems
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

10126 Hwy 126 East, RR#2
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Chris Vermeulen

Chris Vermeulen, founder of AlgoTrades Systems., is an internationally recognized market technical analyst and trader. Involved in the markets since 1997.

Chris' mission is to help his clients boost their investment performance while reducing market exposure and portfolio volatility.

Chris is also the founder of TheGoldAndOilGuy.com, a financial education and investment newsletter service. Chris is responsible for market research and trade alerts for of its newsletter publication.

Through years of research, trading and helping thousands of individual investors around the world. He designed an automated algorithmic trading system for the S&P 500 index which solves his client's biggest problem related to investing in the stock market: the ability to profit in both a rising and falling market.

AlgoTrades' automated trading systems allows individuals to investing using either exchange traded funds or the ES mini futures contracts. It is supported by many leading brokerage firms including:

- Interactive Brokers
- Trade MONSTER
- MB Trading
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He is the author of the popular book "Technical Trading Mastery - 7 Steps To Win With Logic." He has also been featured on the cover of AmalgaTrader Magazine, Futures Magazine, Gold-Eagle, Safe Haven,The Street, Kitco, Financial Sense, Dick Davis Investment Digest and dozens of other financial websites. His list of personal and professional relationships approaches 25,000, people with whom he connects and shares is market insight with out of his passion for trading.

Chris is a graduate of Seneca College where he specialized in business operations management.

Chris enjoys boating, kiteboarding, mountain biking, fishing and has his ultralight pilots license. He resides in the Toronto area with his wife Kristen and two children.

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