Global Currencies - Asia Crisis II

By: Gordon Long & Ty Andros | Sat, Sep 7, 2013
Print Email

Part II - Euro, Yen, Asia & Emerging Markets

Global Currencies - Asia Crisis II

With Special Guest Axel Merk
President & CIO Merk Investments,
Manager of Merk Funds

& Gordon T Long & Ty Andros

36 Minutes, 56 Slides

In Part II of this 70 minute, two part series, Axel Merk in discussions with Ty Andros and Gordon T Long, covers a broad range of the most important Global Currency issues relevant to investors.


Biggest Global Risk

Yen Cartoon

Axel Merk believes the world is becoming less stable. This means investors must become more active. Gone are the days of passive 'mom & pop' investors and instead are being replaced by aggressive monetary and quant. market drivers. It is presently therefore critically important to realize that:

"The biggest risk to the world is that the current economic and monetary policies will work and we get economic growth. If this happens, bonds will plunge, interest rates will rise and governments will be unable to finance their debts!"

This realization is one of the hidden underlying drivers now impacting global currencies and driving increasing volatility.


Currency: Yen

Nowhere is the dysfunctional policy actions of politicians more evident than in Japan. The largest debtor in the world is now dramatically 'doubling down' with its "ABE-nomics"policies. As perilous as the Japanese economic policies are, with Japan having a negative current account balance position, its DEBT NOW MATTERS. Until recently, it hasn't!

Debt Matters


Currency: Asian Tigers

The currency shock waves of instability and volatility that are washing ashore across Asia are reminiscent of the Asia Crisis of 1997-1998. Because of a combination of flexible exchange rates, strong international reserves, better monetary regimes, and a shift away from foreign-currency debt, the shock is better able to be absorbed. However, years of political paralysis and postponed structural reforms have created vulnerabilities.

Asian Debt Levels versus Developed World

Interest rate risk has now come to the forefront. Axel Merk believes bond market volatility will persist. The free ride for emerging economies is over, and those with negative current accounts will feel the pain the most.


Currency: Emerging Markets

The "Faulty Five" of India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey are experiencing the worst impacts. Three of these are part of the touted investor haven of the BRICS. Capital controls loom but as was begrudgingly acknowledged at the recent Jackson Hole Monetary conference:

The choice is this: Impose capital controls OR let the Fed run your economy.

Currency Cartoon

 


Check Out Our Extensive Library of Videos
Video Library
YouTube Channel

20-40 Minute Shows with 25-50 Supporting Slides

 


 

Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

Copyright © 2010-2017 Gordon T. Long

Ty Andros

Author: Ty Andros

Theodore "Ty" Andros
info@TraderView.com
www.TraderView.com

7800 Southland Blvd. #110 Orlando, FL 32809
PH: 800.253.7689 // +1.407.855.4433

Tedbits is authored by Theodore "Ty" Andros, and is registered with TraderView, a registered CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) and TraderVest Clearing LLC a GIB (Guaranteed Introducing Broker). He currently is the principle of TraderView, a managed futures and alternative investment boutique. Mr. Andros began his commodity career in the early 1980's and became a managed futures specialist beginning in 1985. Mr. Andros duties include marketing, sales, and portfolio selection and monitoring, customer relations and all aspects required in building a successful managed futures and alternative investment brokerage service. Mr. Andros attended the University of San Diego, and the University of Miami, majoring in Marketing, Economics and Business Administration. He began his career as a broker in 1983, and has worked his way to the creation of TraderView of which he is the CEO. Mr. Andros is active in Economic analysis and brings this information and analysis to his clients on a regular basis. Ty prides himself on his personal preparation for the markets as they unfold. Developing a loyal clientele.

For greater insight into the philosophy behind Tedbits, have a look at the Tedbits Overview - To help understand our mission in serving you, the TedBits Overview gives a broad description of what's unfolding globally and what you can expect from Tedbits as a regular reader.

DISCLAIMER AND TERMS OF USE: While TedBits strives to present accurate and useful information, we make no guarantee of accuracy or completeness. All information and opinion expressed herein is subject to change without notice. Opinions and recommendations contained herein should not be construed as investment advice. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell any securities or commodities. Do not assume that any recommendations, insights, charts, theories or philosophies will ensure profitable investment. The information contained herein is for personal use only.

Gold and silver backed means that various commodity options strategies in gold and/or silver may be used. When buying options, you may lose all of the money paid for the option. When selling options, you may lose more than the funds received for selling the option. Strategies using combinations of positions, such as spreads or straddles, may be as risky as taking a simple long or short position. A high degree of leverage is used to buy or sell a sufficient quantity of options and/or underlying futures contracts equal to the value of the entire portfolio. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you and lead to large losses as well as large gains. Absolute-return is not meant to imply that a positive return can or will be achieved. Absolute-return describes investment strategies which are designed to have the potential to succeed in rising, market-neutral and falling market conditions. Gold and silver backed and absolute return investments do not mean the investor will take actual physical possessions of any precious metal. Nor should any promise or guarantee be implied that such investments will perform better than any other investment in any possible future scenario described herein nor that such investments can or will preserve or protect in such possible future scenarios.

TedBits may include information obtained from sources believed to be reliable and accurate as of the date of this publication, but no independent verification has been made to ensure its accuracy or completeness. Many of the statements and views made are the opinions of the author. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This report is not a request to engage in any transaction involving the purchase or sale of futures contracts or options on futures. There is a substantial risk of loss associated with trading futures, foreign exchange and options on futures. This letter is not intended as investment advice, and its use in any respect is entirely the responsibility of the user. Past performance in never a guarantee of future results.

Copyright © 2006-2016 Theodore "Ty" Andros

All Images, XHTML Renderings, and Source Code Copyright © Safehaven.com