Gold and Silver Trading Alert: Huge Reversal in USD and Gold - Finally!

By: Przemyslaw Radomski | Tue, Oct 7, 2014
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Gold & Silver Trading Alert originally published on October 7th, 2014 8:21 AM:


 

Briefly: In our opinion speculative long positions (full) in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

The precious metals market finally rallied yesterday. Gold moved lower in the first hours of the session, getting very close to the Dec. 2013 low, but it rallied before the session was over, finally closing over $16 higher. Is the final bottom in?

The final bottom - not likely. The local bottom - very likely. Let's examine the charts and see what actually changed (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

US Dollar Index Daily Chart

Yesterday, we wrote the following:

The Friday's rally was huge and it's no wonder that metals and miners declined. The move took place right after the cyclical turning point, so the odds are that we will not have to wait long for a reversal.

All in all, the outlook for the USD Index is still bearish based on the extremely overbought status, the turning point, and the fact that previous similar breakouts (as seen on the weekly chart) were invalidated.

We already saw a significant daily decline yesterday, so it could be the case that the corrective downswing in the USD Index is already underway. The odds will further increase once we see a move below the rising short-term support line (which is likely to be seen shortly).

What about the precious metals market? It rallied and it's likely to rally even more.

Gold Daily Chart
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Gold moved almost to its Dec. 2013 intra-day low, which is a very important support, so this fact by itself makes a move higher very likely. The fact that gold rallied shortly after declining to this level and ended the session over $16 higher (and forming a reversal hammer candlestick) makes the situation even more bullish. This kind of action is likely to be followed by further rallying.

Gold:US Dollar Weekly Chart
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We recently commented about the gold to USD Index ratio as something that could provide us with technical confirmations. Based on Friday's and today's price moves we saw a small decline below the 2008 high (and 2013 low) that was followed by another move higher. Before viewing the decline as a breakdown, please note that back in 2008 the ratio also moved very temporarily below the horizontal support only to invalidate this move and rally shortly thereafter. It seems that we are seeing this type of action once again.

Silver Weekly Chart
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Silver moved higher and is once again visibly above the rising, long-term support line. The white metal is likely to rally based on this support combined with its heavily oversold status.

Platinum:Gold Weekly Chart
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Today, we would like to cover a very interesting event that happened in the platinum market yesterday. More precisely, it concerns the platinum to gold ratio. Namely, platinum became, very temporarily, cheaper than gold, and this situation was quickly reversed. The entire event happened on huge volume in the ratio (the ratio of volumes). This kind of action (significant events, reversals and huge-volume sessions) quite often happens at the end of a given move. In this case, the preceding move was definitely down.

HUI Gold Bugs Index Weekly Chart
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As far as the mining stocks are concerned, our previous comments remain up-to-date:

Gold stocks are now very close (almost at) their 2013 low, which is a major support level. Combined with a strong support for gold and silver and their oversold status, the above provides us with bullish implications also for the mining stocks sector.

Just a little more strength in the HUI Index will mean an invalidation of the breakdown below 2 support levels, which will be another strong bullish sign.

Summing up, the situation in the precious metals market is still bullish for the short term, even if Friday's intra-day action might suggest otherwise. Monday's price action seems to be the true direction in which the market is likely to head next - up. The corrective downswing in the USD Index has probably already begun. The same goes for the precious metals sector, only in this case, the correction would be to the upside. A lot of money has been saved by staying out of the precious metals market in the past months with one's long-term investments (details below), and it seems that the corrective upswing will provide additional profits from the trading capital.

To summarize:

Trading capital (our opinion):

It seems that having speculative (full) long positions in gold, silver and mining stocks is a good idea:

In case one wants to bet on higher junior mining stock ETFs, here are the stop-loss details and initial target prices:

Long-term capital (our opinion): No positions
Insurance capital (our opinion): Full position

Thank you.

 


You will find details on our thoughts on gold portfolio structuring in the Key Insights section on our website.

As always, we'll keep our subscribers updated should our views on the market change. We will continue to send them our Gold & Silver Trading Alerts on each trading day and we will send additional ones whenever appropriate. If you'd like to receive them, please subscribe today.

 


 

Przemyslaw Radomski

Author: Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do the same.

His company, Sunshine Profits, publishes analytical software that anyone can use in order to get an accurate and unbiased view on the current situation.

Recognizing that predicting market behavior with 100% accuracy is a problem that may never be solved, PR has changed the world of trading and investing by enabling individuals to get easy access to the level of analysis that was once available only to institutions.

High quality and profitability of analytical tools available at www.SunshineProfits.com are results of time, thorough research and testing on PR's own capital.

PR believes that the greatest potential is currently in the precious metals sector. For that reason it is his main point of interest to help you make the most of that potential.

As a CFA charterholder, Przemyslaw Radomski shares the highest standards for professional excellence and ethics for the ultimate benefit of society.

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