• 288 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 288 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 290 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 690 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 700 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 700 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 701 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 703 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 707 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 707 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 708 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 710 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 714 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 715 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 715 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 717 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer

Stock Barometer is completely independent. We have never and will not ever accept compensation from any company whose stock we recommend. Our goal is to…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Bonds And Stocks Weak

4/30/2015 6:17:58 AM

Good morning Traders,

With the market pulling back, right on cue, do we want to get more bearish? Let's take a look at the charts and decide:

AAII % Neutral

The AAII Survey data shows a strong level of uncertainty towards future price action. This sometimes can mean a top. However:

AAII % Bulls

The lack of bulls is very bullish. With this data series, since there?s three elements (bulls, bears, neutral), I think we need to look at two new groups of data - i.e. those not bearish, which instead of just bulls - bears, it would be bulls minus bears minus neutral... I'll see what that looks like.

Moving towards a price action indicator:

Weekly Buy - Sell Signals

As we've started monitoring jobs data, and lots of it, we'll be looking for these repeats in patterns. I've noted that there is a seasonal component, but I believe it amplifies the potential of a turn in the economy. Think of it this way, if you push someone that's coming towards you, it's harder than if you push someone moving away from you. This underlying momentum in jobs is important to watch because that's when the market is most vulnerable, to being pushed...

Continued Jobless Claims

Moving on to gold - I'm still bearish:

GLD Volatility

At some point, gold will depart from this forgiving downward channel. But the dollar is key:

Gold versus Dollar Relative Strength

My target for gold is the 2009 lows. The key is when we get there. If we get a melt up in stocks, then we'll get a melt down in gold - whose rally started back in 2000, before the GLD. We may need to reset those bearish gold options. Our oil options are looking good with oil breaking out.

Regards,

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment