Gold - No Bottom Yet

By: Ed Carlson | Tue, Sep 22, 2015
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I'll begin this week's commentary with a follow up on last week's Hybrid Lindsay forecast for a high in equities. Last week's commentary gave the details of the forecast for a high in the Dow on September 11 or very early last week. Equities pushed that forecast to the limit with last week's closing high on Wednesday followed by a decline of over 350 points. Short bounces notwithstanding, it seems reasonable to assume Wednesday was the high I was looking for.

Gold gained $34.60/oz. last week to close at $1,138.10 just below the 89-dma. Cycles point to a high late this week followed by a pullback into the first week of October but an important high is also due in October.

Gold moves inversely to the Dollar and I still expect one more rally to a new high by DXY. A triangle forecasts a decline in gold to $1,000 and a 4yr cycle low is not due until the first half of 2016 keeping the long-term outlook bearish.

Inflation expectations (chart) are not supportive of higher gold prices.

5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate

 


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Ed Carlson

Author: Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson
Seattle Technical Advisors.com

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

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