Stark Warnings on Global Trade

By: Gordon Long & John Rubino | Fri, Sep 25, 2015
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Stark Warnings on Global Trade

With John Rubino & Gordon T Long

24 Minute Video

John Rubino and Gordon T Long discuss the September FOMC decision, Brazil, Japan in the context of the large number and size of recent international bank layoff announcements. They talk about what is really going on here that no one wants to talk about publicly.

World Trade Value


FOMC Decision - An Incredibly Fragile Situation

Dow after Fed Rate Decision

Rubino says "It would have been a surprise if the Fed had raised rates! What is going out there is mostly pretty bad. The Fed is in a box right now and anything they do cares the potential for some sort of very serious unintended consequences.If they don't act in raising interest rates then that implies to the rest of the world that the Fed sees slow growth which scares the markets to do what they are doing (see chart to the right)."

"We are so leveraged right now that even a 'garden variety' equity bear market of -20% in the US and abroad cares the potential of pushing us into some sort of deflationary crash or 1930's style depression!"

"THE GUYS IN CHARGE HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO DO! EXPECT A SHIFT TOWARDS RENEWED EASING.... ITS GOING TO BE 'BIGGER AND BADDER'.... 2016 is going to be a fascinating year for continued monetary experimentation."

We are currently seeing the build up in the intellectual framework from which this will happen.


Brazil

Brazil for a period of time was the Latin American country that initially got it right! They appeared to be on the verge of becoming a 'developed country' before it all fell apart. The US dollar spiked and Brazilian investment companies that had borrowed a lot of US dollars, investing them in high yielding Brazilian bonds of extraction oriented commodity companies. Now they are on the wrong site of the 'carry' with corruption concerns steadily surfacing.

"The corruption seems to have gone all the way to the top of the government! They have a political crisis as well as an economic crisis."


Japan

Japan has had the most aggressive debt monetization program of anyone in the world over the last three years where they basically tripled the balance sheet of the BOJ. It hasn't worked and Japan is not growing anymore! There inflation rate is basically zero and potentially dropping into deflation AFTER all this new money creation.

"It is clear what they do next, but proposals are now coming out of the woodwork from the easy money, Keynesian side of the spectrum which involves massive increases in money creation and government spending."

WE WILL SEE INTEREST RATES PUSHED TO NEGATIVE LEVELS IN MOST OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD AND CASH (ONE WAY OR THE OTHER) BE HOBBLED AS A STORE OF VALUE TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN!"

The Great EM Unwind

"For a long time global trade grew faster than GDP. More and more of our wealth was coming from trade. It turns out that most of that was do to China borrowing $15-$20 Trillion to snap up most of the global commodities. Everyone was getting richer on paper but that is turning out to be a mirage."

... there is much, much more in this 24 minute video discussion.

 


 

Gordon Long

Author: Gordon Long

Gordon T. Long
Publisher - LONGWave

Gordon T. Long

Gordon T. Long has been publically offering his financial and economic writing since 2010, following a career internationally in technology, senior management & investment finance. He brings a unique perspective to macroeconomic analysis because of his broad background, which is not typically found or available to the public.

Mr. Long was a senior group executive with IBM and Motorola for over 20 years. Earlier in his career he was involved in Sales, Marketing & Service of computing and network communications solutions across an extensive array of industries. He subsequently held senior positions, which included: VP & General Manager, Four Phase (Canada); Vice President Operations, Motorola (MISL - Canada); Vice President Engineering & Officer, Motorola (Codex - USA).

After a career with Fortune 500 corporations, he became a senior officer of Cambex, a highly successful high tech start-up and public company (Nasdaq: CBEX), where he spearheaded global expansion as Executive VP & General Manager.

In 1995, he founded the LCM Groupe in Paris, France to specialize in the rapidly emerging Internet Venture Capital and Private Equity industry. A focus in the technology research field of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generators lead in the early 2000's to the development of advanced Technical Analysis and Market Analytics platforms. The LCM Groupe is a recognized source for the most advanced technical analysis techniques employed in market trading pattern recognition.

Mr. Long presently resides in Boston, Massachusetts, continuing the expansion of the LCM Groupe's International Private Equity opportunities in addition to their core financial market trading platforms expertise. GordonTLong.com is a wholly owned operating unit of the LCM Groupe.

Gordon T. Long is a graduate Engineer, University of Waterloo (Canada) in Thermodynamics-Fluid Mechanics (Aerodynamics). On graduation from an intensive 5 year specialized Co-operative Engineering program he pursued graduate business studies at the prestigious Ivy Business School, University of Western Ontario (Canada) on a Northern & Central Gas Corporation Scholarship. He was subsequently selected to attend advanced one year training with the IBM Corporation in New York prior to starting his career with IBM.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, we encourage you confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

Copyright © 2010-2017 Gordon T. Long

John Rubino

Author: John Rubino

John Rubino
DollarCollapse.com

John Rubino

John Rubino edits DollarCollapse.com and has authored or co-authored five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops, Clean Money: Picking Winners in the Green Tech Boom, The Collapse of the Dollar and How to Profit From It, and How to Profit from the Coming Real Estate Bust. After earning a Finance MBA from New York University, he spent the 1980s on Wall Street, as a currency trader, equity analyst and junk bond analyst. During the 1990s he was a featured columnist with TheStreet.com and a frequent contributor to Individual Investor, Online Investor, and Consumers Digest, among many other publications. He now writes for CFA Magazine.

Copyright © 2006-2017 John Rubino

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