Will this Crude Oil Rally Hold?

By: Bob Loukas | Tue, Aug 9, 2016
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Pipeline

Crude has finally reversed higher to recover some of its recent losses, and is now showing clear evidence of a new Daily Cycle (DC) and Crude Oil Rally.  There are early signs of a new Investor Cycle (IC) as well.

Midweek, Crude bottomed on day 44 before reversing sharply higher and punching through the declining trend-line. And when it closed above the 10 day moving average, Crude confirmed that it is in the early stages of a new Daily Cycle.  From this point forward, Crude’s performance will depend on its Investor Cycle and the bear market as a whole.

Daily Oil Chart
(Note: Chart is from the weekend post. Crude is approaching my first mini target at $44 on Tuesday)

In terms of sentiment, there was enough of a selloff to suggest that an ICL occurred. Even though pessimism did not drop to the level of the previous 2 bear market ICLs, it was more than adequate for an ICL, especially with the weekly Cycle extended beyond its normal timing band.

Crude Oil Optix

At the very least, Crude has seen a DCL, so we should expect at least 1-2 weeks of upside.  Eventually however, given that Crude is in a bear market with a series of lower ICs in play, all paths should lead lower. And that should continue for some time to come.

Oil Weeky Chart

 


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Bob Loukas

Author: Bob Loukas

Bob Loukas
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Bob Loukas is the founder of "The Financial Tap", a membership site dedicated to helping traders and investors navigate the markets while increasing their expertise and understanding. Bob has over 20 years of experience in trading the markets, is a life-long student of economics, and has an abiding passion for the financial markets. Much of his investment philosophy is top-down in nature, beginning with a global and macro outlook which is used to create a framework that drives his intermediate investments.

Bob is a leading expert in Market Cycles. His love of Cycles grew after his introduction to the work of Walter Bressert, one of the pioneers in the field. Cycles were a natural fit with Bob's passion for top-down analysis. As Cycles are intertwined on multiple time frames, understanding the global outlook greatly helps him to identify the long dated Secular Cycles. From that point Bob is better able to identify the shorter Cycles and to build a cohesive investment strategy. Bob's Cycle Analyzer, a software based analytical and intelligence system, is used to predict the future movements of the major financial markets.

Originally from Sydney, Australia, he is now settled and has been working in New York City for the past 13 years. His background and education is in Computer Sciences and he holds a bachelor's degree from Monash University in Melbourne Australia. He has extensive experience in the Financial Software area and has served as a senior executive at various Fortune 50 management teams developing financial trading and reporting software.

Happily married with two children, family is a big part of his everyday life. Other passions including golf and long distance running. He plans to complete the 2012 New York City marathon.

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