Stock Trading Alert: Volatility Following Recent Rally - Which Direction Is Next?
Stock Trading Alert originally published on August 18, 2016, 6:53 AM:
Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,210, and profit target at 2,050, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is now neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
The U.S. stock market indexes gained 0.1-0.2% on Wednesday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors reacted to the FOMC Minutes release, among others. The S&P 500 index remains close to its Monday's new record high of 2,193.81. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,190-2,200. On the other hand, support level is at 2,165-2,170, marked by short-term local lows. The next support level remains at 2,150. Will the market continue higher? Or is this some kind of a topping pattern before downward reversal? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far:
Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are virtually flat. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.1-0.5% so far. Investors will now wait for some economic data announcements: Initial Claims, Philadelphia Fed number at 8:30 a.m., Leading Indicators at 10:00 a.m. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, following yesterday's rebound. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,165-2,170, marked by short-term local lows. On the other hand, resistance level remains at 2,180-2,190, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:
The technology Nasdaq 100 futures contract follows a similar path, as it currently trades close to the level of 4,800, following yesterday's move up off support level at around 4,770. The nearest important level of resistance is at around 4,810-4,820, marked by previous short-term support level, as the 15-minute chart shows:
Concluding, the broad stock market extended its short-term downtrend yesterday, before bouncing off support level. We still can see overbought conditions accompanied by negative technical divergences. Therefore, we continue to maintain our speculative short position (opened on July 18th at 2,162, S&P 500 index). Stop-loss level is at 2,210 and potential profit target is at 2,050 (S&P 500 index). You can trade S&P 500 index using futures contracts (S&P 500 futures contract - SP, E-mini S&P 500 futures contract - ES) or an ETF like the SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY. It is always important to set some exit price level in case some events cause the price to move in the unlikely direction. Having safety measures in place helps limit potential losses while letting the gains grow.