C.O.T Report – Week 2. Speculators became NET bullish in AUD Futures

By: Enda Glynn | Mon, Jan 23, 2017
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The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
Commercial Traders – Hedgers
Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday's Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday. The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.

For most recent reports go to Commitments of Traders
To learn how to use C.O.T go to Commitments of Traders – An Ultimate guide.
For more weekly C.O.T data go to Commitments of Traders Spreadsheet

In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.


C.O.T Positioning

EURUSD: Bullish
GBPUSD: Bullish
AUDUSD: Bullish
USDJPY: Bullish
USDCAD: Bullish
NZDUSD: Bearish


EURO – Euro Futures

Euro CoT

My Bias: Bullish EURUSD

EURUSD held onto its gains during the past week. The pair closed at 1.07 last Friday. My bias remains bullish with the 1.0930 area as a next resistance level.

EUR/USD
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Positions:

Speculators took profit this week. They covered 6K long and 5.2K short positions. The net figure is slightly changed from the previous week (66.500 net short). Open interest was unchanged

Strategy:

Buy longs on pullbacks towards 1.0930 resistance


GBP – British Pound Future

British Pound Futures CoT

My Bias: Bullish GBPUSD

Cable gained despite the negative sentiment. The pair staged a massive recovery last week and finished at 1.2364 on Friday. I remain bullish on this market but will take caution trading it as it is very much depended on Brexit related news.

GBP/USD
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Positions:

Speculators also took profits in this market. They covered 1.5K long and 1K short positions. They remain 66.2K net short, little changed from the previous week. This is a wait and see game.

Strategy:

Wait for the reversal pattern on daily charts and buy dips.


AUD -Australian Dollar Futures

Australian Dollar Futures CoT

My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD

It looks like the tables have turned in Australian Dollar Futures. Speculators switched from being net short to be 5K positions net long.

Although, speculative net positions are still below 33 weeks moving average, the fact they now hold more long then short positions makes me believe this market is going higher from here.

AUD/USD
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Positions:

This week speculators added 1.6K new longs and covered 7K short contracts. This is a major shift in sentiment and it puts speculators on the bullish side

Strategy:

The price is due a deeper correction from the current levels. Buying dips would be a valid strategy.


JPY -Japanese Yen Futures

Japanese Yen Futures CoT

My Bias: Bullish USDJPY

It might be that USDJPY has now completed its seasonal decline or it could put a double bottom around 112.50. The pair rallied substantially after hitting the bottom at 112.50. It closed the week at 114.56. The current level is a major resistance and a former support. It is likely to find some fresh sellers but it might as well stage another leg up. My bias remains bullish USDJPY. I would like to see 112.50 once again to buy it.

USD/JPY
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Positions:

Speculators added 2.5K new longs and only 510 new shorts. Clearly the pace they have been adding shorts has slowed down.

Strategy:

Deeper correction expected. Buy USDJPY on dips.


CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures

Canadian Dollar Futures CoT

My Bias: Bullish USDCAD

USDCAD  rallied and closed the week at 1.3320. The pair moved up very quickly on BOC news and didn't give us a chance to catch it. My bias remains bullish USDCAD

USD/CAD
Larger Image

Positions:

This week speculators added 3.6K new longs and 1.1K new shorts. They were 5.4K net short, down from 8K in previous week. I remain net long USDCAD as long as speculators are net short in CAD futures.

Strategy:

Buy dips on bearish reversal patterns.

 


 

Enda Glynn

Author: Enda Glynn

Enda Glynn
bullwaves.com

Enda Glynn

I class myself as an Elliott wave trader now, but that's not how I started out though! It took me a long time and a whole lot of pain, to finally understand what drives the price and how to use Elliott Wave correctly!

I have been trading for years and I have tested every trading system and strategy under the sun! I used to pick entry points at random based on emotion or news events or something I heard on TV! It did not take long to destroy my capital! I have blown out my account balance before, and I had to start again,

from scratch!

Believe me, I am well acquainted with failure in trading! Im sure that the above scenario is pretty familiar to you too. We have all been there. About 10 years ago I discovered The Elliott wave Principle and its method of market analysis. Since then, I have spent years learning, testing and trading, using the wave principle as the backbone of my analysis. I even went to college to study macroeconomics and econometrics. I graduated with honours degree back in 2012. The financial market knowledge and statistical edge I gained after my degree added another level to my trading. The difference in my trading approach using the wave principle, compared to before, is like night and day.

The price started to move "my way" more and more often. The wave model, offers me a lens to view market action through, which no other form of analysis can do. Elliott wave analysis, helps me answer four key questions when I am contemplating a trade:

• What direction the price is trending.
• How far is this trend likely to go.
• Where can I enter a trade with the best risk reward ratio.
• And most importantly, at what point am I definitely wrong?!

The wave principle helps me improve my trade entry, tighten up my money management and in turn increase profitability. Seeing the waves unfold before your eyes is a very rewarding experience, It is almost like peering into the future! That is how the wave principle helps my trading, and that is why the wave principle will improve your trading. It took a long time to finally master Elliott Wave Principle. After over a decade of hard work, research and learning I can call myself an expert in the field. I regularly contribute to major trading communities at FXStreet, Forex Factory, Traders Planet. I am a chief Elliott Wave analyst at HumbleTraders.

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