C.O.T Report – Week 2. Speculators became NET bullish in AUD Futures
The Commitments of Traders Report is issued by CFTC.
It reports all open positions in futures markets of three main groups of traders:
Commercial Traders – Hedgers
Non-Commercial Traders – Money Managers
Non-Reportable – Retail market
The report breaks down each Tuesday's Open Interest and gives us a powerful view on what exactly the big guys have been doing in the marketplace and what their plans might be.
It is issued every Friday and includes data from Tuesday to Tuesday. The three days prior to the release date are not included.
This is an essential tool for gauging long term sentiment in futures markets.
In this report, we cover EURO, GBP, AUD, JPY, CAD, and we focus on Non-Commercial traders as an indication of a profit driven bias.
EURO – Euro Futures
My Bias: Bullish EURUSD
EURUSD held onto its gains during the past week. The pair closed at 1.07 last Friday. My bias remains bullish with the 1.0930 area as a next resistance level.
Speculators took profit this week. They covered 6K long and 5.2K short positions. The net figure is slightly changed from the previous week (66.500 net short). Open interest was unchanged
Buy longs on pullbacks towards 1.0930 resistance
GBP – British Pound Future
My Bias: Bullish GBPUSD
Cable gained despite the negative sentiment. The pair staged a massive recovery last week and finished at 1.2364 on Friday. I remain bullish on this market but will take caution trading it as it is very much depended on Brexit related news.
Speculators also took profits in this market. They covered 1.5K long and 1K short positions. They remain 66.2K net short, little changed from the previous week. This is a wait and see game.
Wait for the reversal pattern on daily charts and buy dips.
AUD -Australian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish AUDUSD
It looks like the tables have turned in Australian Dollar Futures. Speculators switched from being net short to be 5K positions net long.
Although, speculative net positions are still below 33 weeks moving average, the fact they now hold more long then short positions makes me believe this market is going higher from here.
This week speculators added 1.6K new longs and covered 7K short contracts. This is a major shift in sentiment and it puts speculators on the bullish side
The price is due a deeper correction from the current levels. Buying dips would be a valid strategy.
JPY -Japanese Yen Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDJPY
It might be that USDJPY has now completed its seasonal decline or it could put a double bottom around 112.50. The pair rallied substantially after hitting the bottom at 112.50. It closed the week at 114.56. The current level is a major resistance and a former support. It is likely to find some fresh sellers but it might as well stage another leg up. My bias remains bullish USDJPY. I would like to see 112.50 once again to buy it.
Speculators added 2.5K new longs and only 510 new shorts. Clearly the pace they have been adding shorts has slowed down.
Deeper correction expected. Buy USDJPY on dips.
CAD – Canadian Dollar Futures
My Bias: Bullish USDCAD
USDCAD rallied and closed the week at 1.3320. The pair moved up very quickly on BOC news and didn't give us a chance to catch it. My bias remains bullish USDCAD
This week speculators added 3.6K new longs and 1.1K new shorts. They were 5.4K net short, down from 8K in previous week. I remain net long USDCAD as long as speculators are net short in CAD futures.
Buy dips on bearish reversal patterns.