GBPUSD March Rally - and the Big Decline to Come!
My Bias: short below parity.
Wave Structure: continuing impulsive structure to the downside in wave (5)
Long term wave count: decline in wave (5) blue, below parity
Important risk events: GBP: Net Lending to Individuals m/m. USD: FOMC Member Evans Speaks, Pending Home Sales m/m, Crude Oil Inventories.
On Thursday the 9th of March I Published my nightly Elliott wave analysis
That night I spoke about the possible turn up in the fortunes for GBPUSD.
Here is a chart and a quote from that analysis:
"The flat action today was interspersed with some spikes to the upside,
which look impulsive.
So it is time to look for at least a corrective rally in cable,
which could develop into a larger move, described in the alternate wave count on the 4hr chart.
I am watching for a higher low off today's low of 1.2134 or nearby.
Tomorrows action might provide that.
The alternate wave count calls for a rally into the 1.2600 area, so this one is worth waiting for."
The alternate wave count which I spoke about called for the completion of a large contracting triangle in wave (4) blue.
With one last rally to the upside left in wave 'E' of the triangle to complete that structure.
Here is what happened since that point, I will let the chart speak for itself!
The market rallied 378 points into the recent high at 1.2615. Remember, the target was set at 1.2600.
So the target was met,
Well, that contracting triangle is now complete and the market is getting
ready to decline back into the longterm trend.
The declines off the recent highs labelled wave (4) blue again look impulsive,
This impulsive wave structure has big potential to the downside,
and that is what I will be tracking from now on in the nightly Elliott wave analysis.
To keep on top of the next big move in GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, GOLD and the DOW jones AVG, Check out Bullwaves.org and you too can see into the Elliott wave future every night!