An Even More Bullish Wave Count for GOLD!

By: Enda Glynn | Wed, Apr 26, 2017
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USDJPY

30 min

USD/JPY 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

USD/JPY 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

USD/JPY Daily Chart
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My Bias: LONG
Wave Structure: rally in wave [C]
Long term wave count: wave [C] is underway, upside to above 136.00
Important risk events: JPY: BOJ Outlook Report, BOJ Policy Rate, BOJ Press Conference. Household Spending y/y. USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m.

USDJPY impressed again today and the focus has now totally shifted to the rally ahead indicated in the 4hr chart.
Wave 'iv' brown is possibly underway right now, I am expecting a sideways structure in wave 'iv' possibly a triangle.
The reason being, the guideline of alteration of corrective waves would suggest it.

111.10 forms the first support level, and 11053 should hold any correction from here.

The price broke out above the resistance of the previous wave 'b' brown at 111.59 todays also.
The next big resistance level is at 112.19 the previous wave (b) green on the 4hr chart.
From here lets see how wave 'iv' develops.


DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

30 min

Dow Industrials 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Dow Industrials 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

Dow Industrials Daily Chart
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My Bias: market top is in.
Wave Structure: Impulsive 5 wave structure, possibly topping in an all time high.
Long term wave count: Topped in wave (5)
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m.

The DOW has stalled today,
which is a positive sign for the current wave count.
It is early days yet, but I want to see the decline accelerate from here and form another lower high to turm the momentum to the downside again.

On the 4hr chart the RSI has topped out at extreme levels and turned down again.
The early signs of a momentum shift are welcome.

If we examine the larger wave pattern in wave [ii] green,
It has all the elements of an expanded flat correction to the upside.
Three waves in (a) grey,
Three in wave (b) grey.
and a five wave rally to complete the structure above the high of wave (a).

A break of 20753 would be a good signal of a turn down into wave [iii] green.


GOLD

30 min

Gold 30-Minute Chart
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4 Hours

Gold 4-Hour Chart
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Daily

Gold Daily Chart
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My Bias: Long towards 1550
Wave Structure: ZigZag correction to the upside.
Long term wave count: Topping in wave (B) at 1500
Important risk events: USD: Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders m/m, Pending Home Sales m/m.

I have updated the short term wave count to take account of the recent corrective decline.

GOLD looks to have found support at 1260,
So this Could prove an important turning point if the new wave count proves correct.

I have labelled the whole rally off the 1194 low as wave (i) blue.
The protracted decline over the last 2 weeks now takes the wave (ii) label.
This wave count is a very bullish interpretation which calls for an even bigger overall rally in the larger structure.
Wave (iii) blue could take the price up to about 1420 if a Fibonacci ratio occurs between waves (i) and (iii).
this is shown on the 4hr chart.

SO the action form here is important,
The formation of a higher low above 1260 could offer a great buying opportunity to catch the coming rally.

 


 

Enda Glynn

Author: Enda Glynn

Enda Glynn
bullwaves.com

Enda Glynn

I class myself as an Elliott wave trader now, but that's not how I started out though! It took me a long time and a whole lot of pain, to finally understand what drives the price and how to use Elliott Wave correctly!

I have been trading for years and I have tested every trading system and strategy under the sun! I used to pick entry points at random based on emotion or news events or something I heard on TV! It did not take long to destroy my capital! I have blown out my account balance before, and I had to start again,

from scratch!

Believe me, I am well acquainted with failure in trading! Im sure that the above scenario is pretty familiar to you too. We have all been there. About 10 years ago I discovered The Elliott wave Principle and its method of market analysis. Since then, I have spent years learning, testing and trading, using the wave principle as the backbone of my analysis. I even went to college to study macroeconomics and econometrics. I graduated with honours degree back in 2012. The financial market knowledge and statistical edge I gained after my degree added another level to my trading. The difference in my trading approach using the wave principle, compared to before, is like night and day.

The price started to move "my way" more and more often. The wave model, offers me a lens to view market action through, which no other form of analysis can do. Elliott wave analysis, helps me answer four key questions when I am contemplating a trade:

• What direction the price is trending.
• How far is this trend likely to go.
• Where can I enter a trade with the best risk reward ratio.
• And most importantly, at what point am I definitely wrong?!

The wave principle helps me improve my trade entry, tighten up my money management and in turn increase profitability. Seeing the waves unfold before your eyes is a very rewarding experience, It is almost like peering into the future! That is how the wave principle helps my trading, and that is why the wave principle will improve your trading. It took a long time to finally master Elliott Wave Principle. After over a decade of hard work, research and learning I can call myself an expert in the field. I regularly contribute to major trading communities at FXStreet, Forex Factory, Traders Planet. I am a chief Elliott Wave analyst at HumbleTraders.

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