Market Update - 08/07/2017

By: Ed Carlson | Mon, Aug 7, 2017
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It’s Showtime!

The July 10, Market Update laid out our case for a tradable high in equities to commence sometime by August. We now have a host of reasons (laid out in this report) for thinking that high is now upon us. It’s Showtime!

As explained in the July 10 Market Update, a 15yr interval points to a tradable top (within the ongoing bull market) in the period September 2016 to August 2017 and we have come to the end of the forecast period.



A popular approach of Lindsay’s was his low-low-high interval. Lindsay showed that counting the number of trading days between two important lows often leads to a high the same number of days into the future. The distance between the lows on 2/11/16 and 11/4/16 was 186 days. Counting forward another 186 days targets a top near August 3, 2017. 



Seasonally, a top in August makes total sense as August and September are the two weakest months of the year for equities.

The Decennial pattern warns of a nasty sell-off in equities during years ending in the number 7 (i.e. 2017).  Since 1907 each of these years (with the exception of 1947 which suffered a mere 6.2% drop) has seen a double-digit decline beginning somewhere between June and October.

By Ed Carlson 


 

Ed Carlson

Author: Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson
Seattle Technical Advisors.com

Ed Carlson

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

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