• 287 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 288 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 289 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 689 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 699 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 699 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 700 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 702 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 706 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 706 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 707 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 709 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 713 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 714 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 714 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 716 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

Trade In Counterfeit Goods Hits Half A Trillion Dollars

The counterfeit market has breached…

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

China Releases 'Willfully Fraudulent' Inflation and GDP Data

It's easy to make a case that GDP data everywhere is fraudulent because of the definition which includes government deficit spending, regardless of how ridiculous or useless the spending is. However, China takes the distortions to a level well beyond other countries.

Please consider Dodgy data may add $1 trillion to Chinese economy.

China may be exaggerating the size of its economy to the tune of $1 trillion by releasing "willfully fraudulent" inflation and GDP [gross domestic product] data, according to a study out this week.

Numbers from the world's second largest economy are treated with skepticism by some economists, but this latest report has attempted to quantify the scale of discrepancy.

"There is strong evidence indicating that the rate of real Chinese GDP growth, and ultimately total real GDP, may be significantly over stated," said Christopher Balding, associate professor at Peking University's HSBC Business School, and the report's author.

Through "significant and systematic irregularities", official estimates overstate China's true GDP by 8 to 12 percent, or $1 trillion, according to Balding.

In particular, the report focused on housing inflation data, which is one of the biggest items in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). China's booming economy has caused people to migrate from rural areas to the expanding cities, causing house prices to rocket in industrialised areas. Yet official statistics showed rural house prices increasing more than those in urban areas, said Balding.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics China, the price of private housing in rural areas grew at 1.67 percent per year on average, more than three times faster than prices in urban areas, which averaged 0.53 percent.

In addition, official statistics suggest the price of private housing in China rose by a very modest 8.14% over the 11-year period, despite a housing market boom and a quintupling in nominal GDP.

"The claim that the housing component of CPI grew by less than 10 percent between 2000 and 2011 is nothing less than comical," Professor Balding wrote.


Housing and the CPI

On many occasions I have commented on the distortions of housing and the CPI. The same holds true in the US. For example, please consider ...

As in the US, China does not directly include housing prices in the CPI. I believe housing prices should be in the CPI.

Ignoring asset bubbles is ridiculous, just as the US proved.

Regardless, it is preposterous to presume "the price of private housing in rural areas grew at 1.67 percent per year on average, more than three times faster than prices in urban areas, which averaged 0.53 percent."

Moreover, and unlike other countries, China includes money that is allocated an not even spent. Chinese electricity usage reports are questionable to say the least.

Is Chinese GDP distorted? Of course. GDP everywhere is so distorted as to be useless, but China is at the head of the list.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment