• 287 days Will The ECB Continue To Hike Rates?
  • 287 days Forbes: Aramco Remains Largest Company In The Middle East
  • 289 days Caltech Scientists Succesfully Beam Back Solar Power From Space
  • 689 days Could Crypto Overtake Traditional Investment?
  • 694 days Americans Still Quitting Jobs At Record Pace
  • 696 days FinTech Startups Tapping VC Money for ‘Immigrant Banking’
  • 699 days Is The Dollar Too Strong?
  • 699 days Big Tech Disappoints Investors on Earnings Calls
  • 700 days Fear And Celebration On Twitter as Musk Takes The Reins
  • 702 days China Is Quietly Trying To Distance Itself From Russia
  • 702 days Tech and Internet Giants’ Earnings In Focus After Netflix’s Stinker
  • 706 days Crypto Investors Won Big In 2021
  • 706 days The ‘Metaverse’ Economy Could be Worth $13 Trillion By 2030
  • 707 days Food Prices Are Skyrocketing As Putin’s War Persists
  • 709 days Pentagon Resignations Illustrate Our ‘Commercial’ Defense Dilemma
  • 710 days US Banks Shrug off Nearly $15 Billion In Russian Write-Offs
  • 713 days Cannabis Stocks in Holding Pattern Despite Positive Momentum
  • 714 days Is Musk A Bastion Of Free Speech Or Will His Absolutist Stance Backfire?
  • 714 days Two ETFs That Could Hedge Against Extreme Market Volatility
  • 716 days Are NFTs About To Take Over Gaming?
Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Strong U.S. Dollar Weighs On Blue Chip Earnings

Earnings season is well underway,…

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Billionaires Are Pushing Art To New Limits

Welcome to Art Basel: The…

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Another Retail Giant Bites The Dust

Forever 21 filed for Chapter…

Nadia Simmons

Nadia Simmons

Nadia is a private investor and trader, dealing in stocks, currencies, and commodities. Using her background in technical analysis, she spends countless hours identifying market…

Contact Author

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA (PR) is a precious metals investor and analyst who takes advantage of the emotionality on the markets, and invites you to do…

Contact Author

  1. Home
  2. Markets
  3. Other

Oil Trading Alert: Time for Reversal?

Oil Trading Alert originally published on Aug 5, 2015, 5:33 AM

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

On Tuesday, crude oil moved higher after the market's open supported by hopes for another decline in U.S. stockpiles. Thanks to these circumstances, light crude bounced off the multi-month low and gained 1.48%. Did this increase change anything in the short-term picture of the commodity?

Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by more than 3%, which in combination with expectations that the API and EIA reports would show another decline in domestic crude oil inventories supported the price of light crude. As a result, crude oil reversed and bounced off Monday's low. What impact did this move have on the short-term picture of crude oil? (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

$WTIC Light Crude Oil - Spot Price (EOD) CME
Larger Image

The first thing that catches the eye on the above chart is an invalidation of the breakdown below the green support line based on the previous lows. This positive event encouraged oil bulls to act, which resulted in a rally to an intraday high of $46.23. But did this move change anything in the short-term picture? Not really. The reason? Firstly, yesterday's upswing is much smaller than previous upward moves (marked with blue). Secondly, the size of volume that accompanied Tuesday's increase is much smaller compared to what we saw in recent days. Thirdly, and most importantly, the commodity remains under the previously-broken Apr low and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, what we wrote in our previous commentary is up-to-date:

(...) we believe that as long as crude oil remains below $46.72-$47.05 all upswings would be nothing more than a verification of the breakdown under the previously-broken Apr low and the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Therefore, in our opinion, lower values of the commodity are just around the corner (especially when we factor in the rising size of volume in the previous days, which reflects the growing strength of oil bears).

Summing up, although crude oil moved little higher, the commodity is trading under the previously-broken Apr low, which means that the downtrend remains in place and suggests that lower values of the commodity are still ahead us.

Very short-term outlook: bearish
Short-term outlook: bearish
MT outlook: bearish
LT outlook: bearish

Trading position (short-term; our opinion): Short positions with a stop-loss order at $65.23 are justified from the risk/reward perspective.

 

Back to homepage

Leave a comment

Leave a comment