Safehaven | Update - U.S. Dollar Index June 2008 74.00 Call Option

May 12, 2008

Update - U.S. Dollar Index June 2008 74.00 Call Option
by Patrice Johnson

5/11/2008 6:21:21 PM

Hello Everyone.

Welcome to The J.E.D.I. Trader.

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INTERMEDIATE TREND OF THE U.S. DOLLAR MARKET: UP

STOCK/OPTION/FUTURE UNDER ANALYSIS: JUNE 2008 74.00 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION

TICKER SYMBOL: DXM874.00C (Note: For some firms the ticker symbol may be different)

4/26/2008 ENTRY ALERT: Buy one DXM874.00C (June 2008 74.00 U.S. Dollar Index Call Option)

4/26/2008 CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 74.00 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION:

$.555 ($555.00)

5/4/2008 (WEEK 1) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 74.00 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION:

$.680 ($680.00)

5/11/2008 (WEEK 2) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 74.00 US. DOLLAR INDEX CALL OPTION:

$.430 ($430.00)

OUR BREAK EVEN OPTIONS POINT: $.585

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX 74.00 CALL OPTION FOR THE FIRST WEEK ENDING MAY 4, 2008:

$95.00

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX 74.00 CALL OPTION FOR THE SECOND WEEK ENDING MAY 11, 2008:

($155.00)

4/26/2008 CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES: $73.030

OUR BREAKEVEN FUTURES POINT: $73.05

5/4/2008 (WEEK 1) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES: $73.690

5/11/2008 (WEEK 2) CLOSING PRICE OF JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX FUTURES: $73.225

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON THE JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR FUTURES INDEX (AFTER COMMISSIONS OF $18.50)FOR THE FIRST WEEK ENDING 5/4/2008:

$641.50

DOLLAR GAIN/(LOSS) ON THE JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR FUTURES INDEX (AFTER COMMISSIONS OF $18.50) FOR THE SECOND WEEK ENDING 5/11/2008:

$175.00

EXPIRATION DATE OF OPTIONS CONTRACT: JUNE 6, 2008

EXPIRATION DATE OF FUTURES CONTRACTS: JUNE 16, 2008

PRICE VALUE OF ONE FUTURES POINT: $1000.00

PRICE VALUE OF ONE OPTIONS POINT: $1000.00

This e-mail is to alert you that the intermediate term trend for the June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index Futures is still UP for the second week ending May 11, 2008. The June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index is on the road to recovery and futher gains are possible on this index over the next 6 to 12 months. However, next week we could see yet another pullback in this index particularly if crude oil continues up above $126.00/bbl. Do not be alarmed unless the pullback takes the June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index below it prior support at $72.00. (I doubt this) Watch $72.50 for an early indication that the current uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index will fail to maintain itself.

This pullback may turn out to be yet another good buying opportunity unless it takes us below $72.50.

These pullbacks are normal considering the events and may be an important part of the process before the U.S. Dollar Index continues back up to its next upside target of $76.00 which may or may not occur before this contract expires on June 6, 2008 for the options contract and June 16, 2008 for the futures contract.

My fellow subscribers,

Please see the daily chart for JUNE 2008 U.S. DOLLAR INDEX below DATED FRIDAY, MAY 9, 2008.

The end of the bear trend in the June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index is still in effect as signaled by the breaking of the 45 Degree trend line above (line 1) which is drawn from the February 2008 peak. The breaking of this 45 Degree trend line (line 1 above) confirmed that a new UP TREND is underway. (Note: This will be true as long as prices remain above the support line (above) at $72.00)

An early indication that the uptrend in the U.S. Dollar Index will fail is if prices preceed below the third moving average at $72.50. (This would only be possible, if say, crude oil traded near $200/bbl) Crude Oil is trading around $126/bbl right now. Some analyst believe that it will go much higher and possbile reach $200/bbl.

We cannot classify the JUNE 2008 U.S. Dollar Index to be extremely bullish until prices violate either the third trendline above (LINE 3) or the long term trendline (above) at $75.50.

I believe that both will be violated eventually within the next 6 to 12 months but not without at least one pullback.

I will have another weekly update for the U.S. Dollar Index next Saturday/Sunday. So keep an eye out for my e-mail - UPDATE 3- June 2008 U.S. Dollar Index.

In the meanwhile, I see no reason to exit unless prices on the U.S. Dollar Index takes us below the third moving average line at $72.50 (see chart above).

Good Luck!

And remember, follow THE J.E.D.I. WAY, and the force will be with you.

Best Regards,

Patrice V. Johnson
The J.E.D.I Way

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